Anticipating a drop in international visitors as a result of President Donald Trump’s ban on travel to the United States from six predominantly Muslim countries, the Los Angeles Tourism and Convention Board will roll out a marketing campaign to reinforce the idea that Los Angeles remains a welcoming and safe place for people from any country.

The board, which is the city’s official marketing organization, is anticipating a drop of up to 240,000 international visitors this year, a decline of 3 percent to 3.5 percent. The reduction is projected to result in a $220 million loss to the local economy, based on data provided by British industry market research firm Tourism Economics. The projected decrease for each of the following two years is 300,000 visitors.

Because of the strength of the domestic market, however, the board still expects the total number of visitors to grow 1.8 percent to 48.2 million this year from 47.3 million in 2016.

Los Angeles isn’t the only U.S. destination concerned about slumping tourism.

Although estimates vary, the industry is generally projecting a decrease across the country this year. Other destinations are launching similar campaigns, such as New York, whose destination marketing organization announced this month that it would spend $3 million on such a marketing plan.

The L.A. campaign, which the tourism board expects to roll out next month, will include paid advertising in certain countries, interviews with the media, and use of the organization’s website and social media.

“We’re a very diverse, open-minded, and welcoming destination,” said Don Skeoch, the board’s chief marketing officer. “I think it’s important for a lot of international travelers to understand that if they have a negative sentiment about the U.S., that’s not necessarily L.A.”

Because the board was still finalizing the plans for the campaign last week, not all of the details were available. Skeoch declined to say how much the board plans to spend on the campaign, citing competition.

He said the message would seek to positively affect sentiment toward Los Angeles around the world, not just in countries included in the travel ban, which has been challenged in court.

Given the uncertain status of the ban, the tourism board’s projections could change, Skeoch said, adding that it is preparing for the worst.

Embarking on the campaign is wise, said Chris Seek, founder and chief executive of Solimar International, a tourism marketing firm based in Washington, D.C., adding that it ought to generate a strong return on investment.

“The fact that L.A. is doing it is something I would expect and that they need to be doing,” Seek said. “When you have a crisis, you want to control the narrative. You want to get out in front of it.”

Flattening effect

The so-called Trump slump comes as Los Angeles County is coming off its sixth consecutive year with a record-breaking number of visitors, according to the board.

Starting on Jan. 26, when the president’s first travel ban was signed before it was blocked in court, there was an immediate decrease in the average number of booking searches in an industry database for flights to Los Angeles from other countries, Skeoch said.

For the week starting Jan. 26, the average weekly number of searches decreased 22 percent to 6,000 from 7,800 the week before Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration. The country that Skeoch said had the biggest drop in searches was Mexico, a target of Trump’s nationalist rhetoric that includes a plan to build a border wall.

Although international travelers make up 23 percent of the total number of travelers to the county, they generate a disproportionate amount of revenue because they often stay for longer and in paid accommodations, Skeoch said. On average, an international traveler spends $920 on a trip.

That amount, multiplied by the 240,000 visitors projected not to come this year, equals the $220 million the county economy is expected to lose.

Christopher Thornberg, an economist at Beacon Economics in Westchester, questioned whether it would be possible to calculate such precise numbers.

“We don’t really know the extent of the issue,” Thornberg said. “There are plenty of other reasons you could see (a decrease in international visitors) happening.”

However, the L.A. tourism board still had reason for concern, he added.

Los Angeles is predicting a smaller decline in its number of international travelers compared with other locations because it has a larger mix of those from Pacific Rim countries and Asia than the East Coast, which has more Europeans, Skeoch said.

There has been a mixed reaction to the travel ban among the Chinese, whose numbers have been growing in Los Angeles, with some considering it safer to travel to America now, he said.

Observers expect an even greater decline over the next couple of years because most international travelers plan their trips well in advance.

“We’re living with a false sense of security because that (booking) pipeline filled up last fall,” Skeoch said. “The people you see at (Los Angeles International Airport) planned their trips over a year ago.”

Local impact

Hotel MdR, a Doubletree by Hilton in Marina del Rey, is trying to head off a future decrease of international guests now. The hotel, which is patronized by neighboring Silicon Beach tech companies, started offering 10 percent to 25 percent discounts this month to customers who make an advance purchase after seeing a softening in its number of international visitors in January and February, according to General Manager Michael Kapoulis.

Although unusually heavy rain this winter has been responsible for some of the decrease, some of the hotel’s corporate clients told Kapoulis they intend to cut back on visits due to the travel ban, he said.

“They’ve resorted more to teleconferencing and delaying trips,” said Kapoulis, who is waiting for the peak summer months to see how things shake out.

“We haven’t necessarily seen the effect on international travel with the travel ban yet,” he said. “This summer will be the true tell because it will be a six-month window from the election.”

In contrast, the J. Paul Getty Museum has seen a slight increase of 1 percent in international visitors this winter through February compared with the same time last year, according to spokeswoman Julie Jaskol.

She said in an email that it isn’t clear if the travel ban had any effect.

“Without real research, we couldn’t attribute any fluctuation in visitation to any particular cause,” Jaskol said.

The tourism board’s campaign will likely help by drawing attention to the possibility of Los Angeles as a destination, even subconsciously, according to Solimar’s Seek.

“It’s been well-documented that you’ve got to plant the first seed to create awareness of the destination,” he said.