Sometimes the most concerning trends in higher education are not the loudest ones.
This year, while reviewing Chaffey College’s enrollment data, one number stood out. Its implications extend far beyond our campus and raise important questions about California’s future workforce. Although Chaffey College continues to experience strong enrollment, serving nearly 30,000 students, the number of students receiving the Assembly Bill 540 nonresident tuition exemption declined by 14%, reversing years of steady growth.
AB 540 is a California law that allows certain nonresident students, including many undocumented students who attended and graduated from California high schools, to qualify for in-state tuition rates at California public colleges and universities.
There is rarely a single explanation for enrollment shifts, but a May KQED report highlighting sharp statewide declines in California Dream Act applications may help explain part of what we are seeing locally. Because many of the students eligible for AB 540 also rely on the California Dream Act to access state financial aid, application trends offer an important indicator of college-going patterns among undocumented and mixed-status families. The report documented a 42% drop in first-time California Dream Act applications, prompting growing concern that students from immigrant and mixed-status families are becoming increasingly hesitant to apply for financial aid or pursue college because of fears surrounding immigration enforcement and personal data sharing. Niki Kangas, spokesperson for the California Student Aid Commission (CSAC), described the decline as “troubling and sustained,” suggesting Chaffey’s experience reflects a broader statewide trend.
If students across California are deciding college is no longer worth the perceived risk, the consequences will extend well beyond higher education. The students affected by these concerns are not disconnected from our communities. They are graduates of local high schools. They represent years of investment in California’s public education system that may never yield its full return if qualified students feel unable to continue their education. Many are balancing work and family responsibilities while preparing for careers in healthcare, education, logistics, manufacturing, public service and the skilled trades. If trends like these continue across California, they threaten to narrow the pipeline of students preparing to fill the very professions our economy depends on.
Workforce shortage already exists
The Public Policy Institute of California projects that the state will need 1.1 million more workers with bachelor’s degrees by 2030 to meet economic demand, identifying the Inland Empire and Los Angeles County as two of the three regions critical to closing that workforce gap. California cannot meet its workforce needs if unnecessary barriers are preventing qualified students from accessing higher education. In fact, signs of that challenge are already emerging across critical industries. The California Board of Registered Nursing projects that Southern California will continue to face shortages of registered nurses through at least 2037, underscoring the growing gap between workforce demand and the supply of trained professionals.
Enrollment trends at community colleges often reveal broader shifts happening inside communities long before they appear elsewhere. California has spent decades building educational pathways intended to expand opportunity and strengthen the state’s workforce. Community colleges sit at the center of that effort by providing affordable access to career training, workforce preparation and university transfer opportunities. But those pathways only work when students feel secure enough to take advantage of them. When students choose not to complete financial aid applications, delay enrollment or quietly put educational plans on hold, the impacts are easy to miss at first. But over time, those individual decisions affect workforce pipelines and economic mobility.
Higher education depends on trust. Students must believe that pursuing an education will create opportunity, not place themselves or their families at risk. At Chaffey College, we remain committed to ensuring students have access to counseling, financial aid guidance, and accurate information about available protections and resources. However, colleges cannot solve this problem on their own if fearful students are hesitant to make contact. This moment requires a renewed commitment from educational institutions and policymakers alike to strengthen protections, build trust, and ensure students from undocumented and mixed-status families feel safe pursuing higher education.
California’s future workforce is already sitting in our classrooms today. If qualified students are discouraged from pursuing higher education, the consequences will reach far beyond our colleges. They will be felt in our hospitals, classrooms, businesses, and communities for years to come. Ensuring students feel safe pursuing higher education is not only an educational priority; it is an economic imperative for the future of California.
Henry Shannon, Ph.D., has served as superintendent/president of Chaffey College in Rancho Cucamonga since 2007, bringing more than four decades of higher education leadership to the role.
