For the past two decades, the list of richest people in Los Angeles has been as kaleidoscopic as the local economy. A mix of well-established media content owners, real estate developers and financiers with their money in a multitude of local and national ventures comprise L.A.’s wealthiest residents.

A decade from now, however, their reign will be challenged by a new breed of mogul. Call them the “Toby Lenks,” because in many respects they will likely be cut from the same cloth as Lenk, founder of the high-profile e-commerce bust eToys Inc.

The 2010 list of wealthiest Angelenos will probably contain at least a few fallen stars of the Internet economy. With their groundbreaking and instructive work in new media and their mastery of old media, they have a chance to build massive wealth for themselves and others in the digital marketplace of the near-term future.

They are, as USC economist Leonard Mitchell put it, “the younger, more agile minds who can get beyond the conventions.”

While Lenk has been the talk of the town for his company’s spectacular downfall, he and other well-grounded entrepreneurs who soldier on are also being voted most likely to succeed in the L.A. economy of 2010.

“Those who master the art of global information and communications, and who can work within the technology of the day with an intuitive understanding of what’s happening, will make the list in 2010,” said Mitchell, who is director of the USC Center for Economic Development.

That kind of entrepreneur is conspicuously absent from this year’s list. In fact, a couple of them fell off after having made the list in recent years past. Among those who disappeared are former Global Crossing executives David Lee and Barry Porter, who are now investing in technology ventures through their new Beverly Hills-based investment firm, Clarity Partners. Idealab’s Bill Gross is also off the richest Angelenos list.

They were edged out this year by an older guard that is getting wealthier thanks to diverse, global investment portfolios. As this aged group shifts its portfolios to other family members or disburses it to various philanthropic efforts, the Toby Lenks will have a chance to fill their shoes.

Critical technology mass

“You’ll see these entrepreneurs displacing the family names you currently see on the list,” Mitchell said. “They are busy at work right now building the next genre, which is digital and global.”

That forecast sounds like the bubble-inflating talk of last year. But Mitchell is betting on the survivors, the battle-scarred visionaries of today.

Others, like Kevin Wall of Shelter Capital Partners, argue bullishly that San Diego’s growing wireless industry and the recently funded nanotech and biotech initiatives at local universities will transform L.A. into an epicenter of technology.

“The area will continue to attract top educators from around the world, which will become a magnet for people to study and relocate,” he said. And from that mass will emerge tomorrow’s billionaires.

Said Jack Kyser, chief economist with the L.A. Economic Development Corp.: “The basis of the economy will do some shifting, and most changes will come in technology. You’re going to see some new types of technology emerge and new technology sectors that take on a life of their own.”

Digital, biotech rise

Digital optics and biotech have the most interesting futures in L.A., according to Kyser, as well as “some other technology sectors that we’re not even aware of.”

Few know the pulse of those emerging technologies as well as the city’s top intellectual property attorneys. One of them, Morgan Chu, co-managing partner at Irell & Manella LLP, agreed that tech leaders have a strong chance of reappearing on the richest list in 2010.

“The three major industries are going to be medical and biotech companies, communications companies that handle data, voice and content of any kind, and the content industry itself, which includes but is not limited to the entertainment industry,” Chu said.

Those latter two sectors content and communications are of course intimately related, and whoever successfully marries them could be the next Bill Gates.

So far, no one has gotten the convergence thing quite right, largely because the Roy Disneys of the world are in no hurry to get Napsterized. But the content owners are going to go digital eventually, and those who provide the enabling technologies at the right time and place will hit the jackpot.

While the future of tech in L.A. is rife with uncertainty, it doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that real estate developers will continue to accumulate gobs of cash. Joining the Eli Broads, Donald Sterlings and Alan Casdens on the 2010 list will be dealmakers who can deliver imaginative solutions in the fight for space.

“You’ll see some new players in real estate, because there’s huge demand for real estate in L.A. and a demand for using it more strategically and in different ways,” Kyser said.