Pacific Palisades and the Eaton area appear to be on vastly different paths when it comes to lot sales in each burn area, as prices and the deal volume trend up in Palisades and drop in Altadena.
Jacqueline Chernov, an agent at The Beverly Hills Estates who lost her residence in the Palisades Fire, said sales in the area were “really slow” right after the January fires and then heading into the beginning of summer. Since then, they’ve started picking up in the last two months.
Between July and August, lot sales increased by 45.5%., according to data from Pali Builds – a permitting and sales tracking platform. Pali Builds reported 259 sales for a total of $719.8 million, with an average price of $2.8 million and a median price of $1.8 million, as of Sept. 16.
Of the buyers Chernov has represented, she estimates that about half are buying lots to build a home for themselves, while the other half are developers.
This includes developers from large public companies purchasing up to 30 lots, mid-sized firms buying six to 10 and other builders buying one or two.
For those who are selling, Chernov finds it’s often people with young families who “seem to want to go start their life elsewhere” or “elderly people that don’t have the bandwidth to rebuild.”
Insurance also plays a role.
Buyers are looking for lots in the Alphabet Streets, Huntington and the VĂa De La Paz Bluffs area. For these properties, “I have more buyer calls coming in than I have sellers right now,” Chernov said, estimating a ratio of three to one.
Before the fires, Chernov said a 6,500 square-foot lot in 1000 block of the Alphabet Streets in Pacific Palisades would sell for about $3.2 million, “if you could find one.”
In early summer, they sold for about $1.65 million, but Chernov said they now go for about $2 million.
Altadena downturn
Meanwhile, the Altadena market is on the comedown from a summer surge with lots now staying on the market for longer periods, said Teresa Fuller, a broker at Compass. Fuller, whose home was partially damaged in the Eaton Fire, has been ranked the No.1 agent in Altadena every year since 2017 by MLS.
“Lot sales have continued to slow, and prices have continued to fall,” Fuller said. “The more lots we have on the market, the slower things have become.”
As of Sept. 12, there had been 231 lot sales in Altadena and 133 active listings, according to data compiled by Fuller and her team. This represents a 110% increase in sales since the beginning of May, though activity peaked in July and has since tapered. Prices have followed suit.
Lots under 10,000 square feet were selling for $75.32 per square foot, while lots over 10,000 square feet were selling for $58.89 as of Sept. 19, Fuller said. This compares to a May-June peak of close to $79 and a May-July peak of about $60, for each respective lot size.
The buyer demographic has also evolved. “In March and April, we saw quite a few individuals pop up and really want to buy something in Altadena for themselves… but now, I’m mostly talking to developers,” she said.
Fuller believes developers are anticipating further price reductions, contributing to less buying activity.
A majority of the developers she has heard from are buying between one and three lots with plans to build model homes, though there are a few who have purchased between 15 and 25 lots.
“Most of (the developers) are incredibly concerned about understanding what to build to please Altadena,” Fuller said. “They’ve been lovely and conscious of what has historically been built here, and they’re trying very hard to stay with the Altadena vibe.”
As for location, Fuller found that lot sales in neighborhoods where everything burned started off very slow “whereas neighborhoods dotted with standing structures sold more readily,” she said.
“…People wanted to build more of an infill structure, rather than starting over in a neighborhood that had nothing,” Fuller added.
The former is seeing some more sale activity than before though as people anticipate the return of the community.
“Every month, it gets more and more hopeful.”
