It’s not easy being in the crystal ball business these days, what with blogs, chat rooms, talk radio and the New York Post all spitting out things that might happen, are expected to happen, should happen, and, in the case of the Republican enforcers in Congress, had better happen.
What’s there left to say for New Year prognosticators like yours truly?
Well, plenty. As for 2005, it was a year of some top-notch predicting (highlights included correctly picking two Supreme Court vacancies, a near-abandonment of Social Security reform, Robert Iger becoming Disney’s CEO and Phil Jackson returning to coaching), as well as breathtaking blunders (flat home prices, Martha Stewart getting engaged, USC losing three games and James Hahn being re-elected). Oh, one other thing: I wrote that Jackson would return as coach of the New York Knicks. Ouch.
And so here we are with another roster of predictions. I only ask that you put away any sharp objects as I slip-slide my way toward 2006:
Mid-term Elections:
Despite increasing calls for President Bush’s impeachment, Democrats will barely make a dent in the Republican control of the House because incumbents hold an overwhelming advantage over challengers. In the Senate, Democrats will gain three seats, cutting into GOP control of that chamber.
Bush Troubles:
Criticism over the President’s authorization to spy on citizens without court order will gain traction in the first half of the year, putting off most every Bush policy initiative as defense attorneys of suspected terrorists take their case to court.
Ah-nold! Ah-nold!:
In the nation’s most expensive gubernatorial contest in history, Arnold Schwarzenegger will be re-elected governor of California, besting Phil Angelides in a runaway but only after Warren Beatty drops out as an independent.
Trojan Troubles:
Forget about another national championship. With the loss of several key players to the NFL, including Matt Leinert and Reggie Bush, USC will drop three games and fall out of the top 10. UCLA will lose four.
Satellite Worries:
Howard Stern’s much-anticipated arrival on satellite radio will draw fewer listeners than anticipated, leading to worries on Wall Street about whether the two major satellite companies have overextended themselves.
Not So Bright:
Economists will be wrong again, as the economy grows much slower than expected. No recession, though, at least this year.
Big Bankruptcy:
General Motors Corp., considered by many too big to fail, will fail or at the least it will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Wall Street will hail the move as a way to get massive union concessions.
Grade-B Dodgers:
It won’t be another horrendous 71-91 season, but don’t get your hopes up with Brett Tomko, Kenny Lofton, Nomar Garciaparra and Bill Mueller. Plan on 10 or so games above .500 and forget about the postseason.
L.A. Hoops:
The Lakers will make it to the post-season; the Clippers won’t.
IPod Viewing:
It’s not just a craze. All the major networks will be selling their programming on Apple’s iTunes, and the movie studios will be shortening many of their older features to 60 minutes or less.
Turnaround Tales:
After either being in bankruptcy or on the verge of it, the major airlines will turn profitable in 2006 as lower fuel costs and fuller planes improve efficiency.
Housing Pause:
Median home prices in L.A. will drop 2 percent hardly the meltdown some had anticipated.
Market Rebound:
A solid year for stocks, with the Dow finishing up 1,000 points ahead of its 2005 close. Tech issues will do especially well.
Oscar Picks:
To little surprise, “Brokeback Mountain” will get the best picture nod. Other strong showings on Oscar night: “Capote” and “Good Night and Good Luck.” Steven Spielberg’s “Munich” will be shut out.
Paris Fizzles:
At last, 2006 will see the world’s Paris Hilton fixation running its course thanks mostly to plummeting ratings for “The Simple Life.”
Pretty Plates:
Diners will tire of fussy meals that look like artwork. Here’s to real food presented in real heaps.
Fully Released:
A film will be released on DVD and at the movie house simultaneously a daring step in Hollywood’s efforts to loosen up their distribution channels. Too bad the movie will flop.
Eye on Katie:
After months of speculation, Katie Couric will jump ship to CBS and anchor that network’s evening news and by the end of the year, she will have the top-rated newscast.
Passing Fad:
Those wristbands of various colors that are attached to various causes will be out. Good riddance, I say if you want to support a worthy cause, write a check, don’t flaunt your good-heartedness.
And Finally:
We’ll somehow find a way to muddle through 2006 just in time for Bing Crosby’s crooning and more ridiculous predictions about the coming year.
*This is Mark Lacter’s last column as editor of the Business Journal. He will continue to work on a variety of projects for the paper, as well as write some commentaries. He can be heard every Tuesday morning at 6:55 and 9:55 on KPCC-FM (89.3).
