And Then the Fallout

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The election is a couple weeks behind us, and folks have had a chance to take stock. Whatever their political leanings, the pocketbook is what has most people concerned. And they are concerned.

On the broader scale, economist Christopher Thornberg is worried that if Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric moves from talk to action, a recession is likely to follow. Early indications are that the president-elect will selectively back off from some of his more incendiary ideas, though there are no guarantees.

And that has many, especially in L.A.’s immigrant community, nervous. Though he has said his first priority on the immigration front will be to deport those here illegally who have committed crimes against people or property, there could be a second wave. And that second wave could prove particularly devastating to the local economy if the feds turn their attention to the roughly 1 million folks here without papers.

Say goodbye to the bussers at your favorite restaurant, the person who sewed your clothes downtown, your nanny, and your housekeeper (all of whom pay taxes on every purchase they make). To deny the deep, lasting negative impact on businesses and households is to not understand how the L.A. economy works.

And then there are the jobs that will be lost when the hefty new tax on e-cigarettes kicks in and age restrictions for legal vaping go up.

That has led some in the business to cry foul – they won’t be able to produce product here in California, and a large number of customers will be aged and priced out of the market. All true. And jobs will be lost. But the revenue generated by the higher taxes and the public health benefits that are likely to come must be weighed against those losses.

Economists are still searching for the elusive Pareto improvement, that which results in a benefit to some without a cost to others. The policy implications of the recent election have made the search that much more difficult.

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