SWINGSEATS//mike1st/mark2nd
PRODUCTION NOTE BULLETS
By HOWARD FINE
Staff Reporter
Democrats and Republicans, having both determined that control of the state Assembly will be determined by only a dozen or so key races, are pouring resources into those campaigns. And nearly half the key races are in Los Angeles.
But with Election Day only about a week away, it’s looking like the Republicans will likely come up short. The GOP needs to gain four seats to win a majority in the 80-seat Assembly, and the Democrats are widely considered to have a lock on the state Senate. That means there is likely to be a Democrat-controlled Legislature again next year.
“Republicans have a chance to gain the Assembly, but only if everything breaks right for them and every single contested race goes their way,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a local Republican consultant. “Realistically, I see a gain of no more than two seats, which puts them at 39. That puts the Republicans in a position to gain a majority in the 2000 elections, just in time for the crucial votes on redistricting.”
Earlier in the year, Republicans had hoped their party’s higher voter turnout in non-presidential statewide elections would tip the balance of power. That higher turnout, compared with Democrats, was largely responsible for putting Republicans in the governor’s mansion in the last four elections.
But, largely in reaction to the passage of Republican-backed Propositions 187 and 209, the labor movement has emerged as a potent force in getting out the Democratic vote. That could offset the historical Republican edge. In addition, the so-called Clinton effect of Democratic voters staying home on Nov. 3 has not emerged, according to recent polls.
Steve Scott, political editor for the California Journal, said there has been no slippage in the polls for Democratic candidates for state Legislature since the summer. This is borne out in conversations with key political players in both parties.
With both parties now focusing on walking the precincts and getting out their respective party votes, the election will likely hinge on turnout in five key L.A. districts, three districts in Fresno, two districts in San Diego and perhaps a couple of districts in other counties.
The crucial L.A. County Assembly seats, four of which are currently held by Democrats, are:
? The 44th District in Pasadena, where incumbent Democrat Jack Scott is fighting off a challenge from Republican Ken LaCorte;
? The 53rd District in the South Bay, where Democrat George Nakano and Republican Bill Eggers are fighting to win the seat being vacated by Democrat Debra Bowen, who is being term-limited out.
? The 54th District in Long Beach, where Democrat Alan Lowenthal and Republican Julie Alban are vying for the seat being vacated by Democrat Steve Kuykendall, who is running for Congress;
? The 56th District in Bellflower and Cerritos, where incumbent Democrat Sally Havice is being challenged by Republican Phil Hawkins; and
? The 60th District in Diamond Bar/West Covina, where Democrat Ben Wong and Republican Robert Pacheco are running for the seat now held by Republican George Miller, who is running for Congress.
One other L.A. district the 43rd in Glendale, where incumbent Democrat Scott Wildman is facing Republican challenger Peter Repovich had been considered close until past sexual harassment allegations against Repovich surfaced and Republicans backed off in their support. Wildman is now expected to carry the district by a comfortable margin.
Scott characterized the key match-ups as reflective of geographic trends.
“We have two phenomena going on here: the classic urban vs. suburban dynamic and the maverick swing votes in coastal districts,” said Scott. “The suburban areas of Glendale, Pasadena and Diamond Bar used to be safe Republican seats, but they are now becoming more urban in character.”
The coastal area, meanwhile, long has been home to swing districts and is acting true to form this time around, he said.
In 1996, all but one of these seats went Democratic, largely due to a vigorous get-out-the-vote campaign by labor and to candidates riding the coattails of President Clinton. This time around, while Clinton may not be much of a factor, labor is once again mounting a get-out-the-vote campaign.
The L.A. County Federation of Labor has raised about $1 million for its voter-turnout drive among union members, especially targeting the five key districts.
“We had a tremendous voter turnout in June to defeat Proposition 226,” said Miguel Contreras, executive secretary and treasurer for the L.A. County Federation of Labor. “Now we are going to union voters and reminding them which candidates are friendly to labor.” All of those candidates are Democrats.
The L.A. County Federation of Labor has opened up an office in Bellflower, aimed at shoring up support for incumbent Havice, Contreras said. And it is also helping Lowenthal, Nakano and Scott.
These labor efforts are helping to offset what Scott said is a shortage of money from the Democratic Party for these races.
“The Davis campaign is sucking up most of the Democratic Party money,” Scott said.
On the Republican side, much of the grassroots effort is being mounted by the party itself, with help from business groups. Assembly Republican Leader Bill Leonard said he expects the Republicans will raise less money overall for their state legislative campaigns than the Democrats will for theirs.
