The race to replace the late City Councilman John Ferraro is entering the home stretch, with election day a mere two weeks away on Sept. 11. Nearly every day brings a debate between the 10 candidates somewhere in the sprawling district, which spreads out from Studio City to the Miracle Mile.

A real dogfight has emerged among three candidates: former Ferraro and Mayor Richard Riordan aide Tom LaBonge, L.A. Community College Trustee Beth Garfield and former state Sen. President-pro-tempore David Roberti.

“It’s too close to call between these three,” said Coby King, an L.A.-based political and public relations consultant. “The only certainty in this race is that there will be a runoff on Oct. 23 between two of these candidates.” That’s because, with a total of 10 candidates, it would be virtually impossible for one to garner 50 percent, especially with three front-runners.

The other certainty is low voter turnout; the only question is whether it will break 10 percent of the 100,000-plus registered voters in the district.

Such a low turnout brings its own set of dynamics. “This race is about identifying who your voters are and making sure they show up to the polls or punch out their absentee ballots,” King said.

LaBonge, who has raised the most funds so far ($266,000 as of Aug. 1), has the advantage of a thorough knowledge of the district.

“This guy knows every intersection,” said political consultant Jorge Flores. “If there is anything recent elections have shown, it’s that the folks who demonstrate the most connection on a local basis tend to get the votes.”

Garfield, who is the wife of former state Assemblyman Wally Knox, may not possess such detailed knowledge. But she has the support of the County Federation of Labor, which could prove just as crucial to a get-out-the-vote drive. If the county fed decides to put its troops in the field to canvass door-to-door, that could more than offset LaBonge’s local advantage. As of late last week, though, no decision had been made.

Though he’s been out of office for several years, Roberti can’t be ruled out. Many older voters have fond memories of him as their state senator, King said, and it’s the older voters who have the highest propensity to vote.

Riordan Meets OC Waterloo?

With decision day nearing for former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan on whether to run for the Republican nomination for governor, one seasoned campaign manager says that Riordan’s stance in favor of converting the closed U.S. Marine Air Force Base at El Toro in Orange County could doom his chances.

Harvey Englander of the MWW Group in Los Angeles, who has managed several local campaigns in both L.A. and Orange counties, said Riordan is a hated figure among El Toro opponents.

“Riordan just didn’t come out rhetorically in favor of an airport at El Toro; he actually came down to Orange County and led a fund-raising effort,” Englander said. As a result, many airport opponents in overwhelmingly Republican south Orange County were deeply offended by what they saw as meddling by their big neighbor to the north.

Now, Riordan needs those south Orange County Republicans if he is to get the Republican nomination and have any chance of beating Gray Davis.

“If you are a Republican and want to win a statewide race, you need at least a 200,000-vote margin from Orange County to act as a counterbalance against the heavily liberal havens of West L.A. and San Francisco,” he said. “With what Riordan did on El Toro, there’s almost no chance he’s going to get that margin in Orange County. I’ve talked to those Republicans down there, and they tell me they are ready to sit on their hands and watch him drown rather than cast a vote for him.”

Staff Reporter Howard Fine can be contacted by phone at (323) 549-5225, ext. 227 or by e-mail at [email protected].