Local Index Indicates Hard Times Ahead

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The Anderson Center’s California Composite Index of Consumer Sentiment declined for the third straight quarter, hitting its lowest level since the survey originated in 2002.


The decline is attributed to continued housing market woes, high gasoline prices, concerns about the job market and a volatile stock market. The index, compiled by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University, measures consumers’ expectations about current and future economic conditions.


“This shows just how scared Southern California consumers are,” Jack Kyser, the chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty out there.”


All three components of the composite index dropped in the most recent quarter when compared to the first quarter levels.


The index measuring current economic conditions declined to 42.1 in the second quarter from 46.4 in the first quarter of 2008. Similarly, the index measuring future economic conditions decreased from 80.8 in the previous quarter to 76.3 in the second quarter. An index level below 100 indicates a higher percentage of pessimistic customers as opposed to optimistic, the index said.


The index measuring consumers’ planned spending on big ticket items dropped sharply to 51 from 77.1 the previous quarter and an 88.9 in the same period last year which indicates that consumer spending over the next six months will be significantly lower than the first quarter.

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