Trumped or Swamped?

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Put the champagne on ice when it comes to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is the name of the proposed adjustment to – or new version of – the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement.

Some early reports characterized the preliminary agreement as a big win produced by the hard-ball negotiating tactics of President Donald Trump.

Business executives can certainly relate to – and many will appreciate – the accomplishment of getting an agreement hammered out.

The community of business in Los Angeles has plenty of reason to follow this one as it plays out past the headlines. The Los Angeles County-Orange County area tracked by the International Trade Administration sent $10.9 billion worth of exports to Mexico last year, according to the most recent data from the federal agency. Businesses in the area sent $7.6 billion in exports to Canada. Those totals made our southern and northern neighbors the region’s biggest export markets.

Wall Street registered initial approval at the deal’s announcement, and much of the cheer was based on the notion it provides a measure of certainty in U.S. trade policy.

Back to reality now, though, because the deal still must still be ratified by both houses of the U.S. Congress. That’s where politicians will soon hear from the lobbyists – denizens of Trump’s so-called swamp – who will no doubt take numerous broad and specific exceptions to some of the deal’s terms on behalf of the corporate, labor and other interests they represent.

Consider the leadership of the United Automobile Workers – never big fans of international trade pacts in general. They sent some supportive signals in the immediate wake of the revised pact’s announcement, according to early reports. That might track to a provision intended to ensure more high-paid work is done in the United States. It requires that at least 40 percent of any motor vehicle made in the United States, Mexico or Canada is produced by laborers making at least $16 an hour.

That makes moving production to Mexico less attractive, to be sure. But doesn’t it also emphasize a $16 floor for autoworkers in the United States? That’s about where entry-level UAW members start now – and here’s a guess that the union, upon deeper review, won’t be thrilled about having that number enshrined as a standard of the trade pact.

There are plenty of perspectives, to be sure.

Here’s hoping the deal earns bipartisan support on its merits for our economy and society at large – and let the political benefits or drawbacks fall where they might.

Just don’t think it’s a done deal yet. Anyone who can recall the narrow passage of NAFTA – inherited and pushed politically by the Clinton administration, which had a majority in both houses of Congress at the time – knows to expect a lot of horse trading on a trade deal in Washington.

That doesn’t necessarily mean certainty for business in Los Angeles.

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