The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast released Wednesday expects a weak economic recovery next year, with California’s jobless rate unlikely to dip below 10 percent before 2012.
The quarterly forecast sees the state’s unemployment rate, which hit 12.5 percent in October, peaking at 12.7 percent – possibly this month – then starting to subside in 2010. California's total employment is expected to shrink by 4.3 percent this year, by 0.7 percent next year and grow by 1.7 percent in 2011.
Putting a drag on the California’s economy is a combination of a largely jobless national recovery so far, and the impact of expected severe cuts in public spending due to the growing state budget. The state now faces a deficit of $20.7 billion, which includes $6.3 billion in shortfalls for the current fiscal year alone.
"The stalled California economy is simply not producing the jobs required for the new entrants to the labor force over the next couple of years to prevent these elevated levels of unemployment to persist once the job lay-offs cease," the forecast said.
The Anderson report contrasts with a slightly more optimistic outlook from private consulting firm Beacon Economics released Tuesday.
Beacon, whose forecast team includes former Anderson economist Chris Thornberg, believes the both the nation’s and the state’s unemployment rate could get below 10 percent in 2010.
For reprint and licensing requests for this article, CLICK HERE.