Merger Talks Push Beverage Company Shares Into Cycle of Swings

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What goes up must go down. Then, back up again. And then down.

That’s been the case for two months with shares of Corona-based Hansen Natural Corp., which makes the popular Monster Energy drink.

The rollercoaster ride began the week ending May 9, where shares in Hansen dropped 18 percent for the week after the company reported a surge in profits and sales that nonetheless missed Wall Street’s expectations.

However, longstanding rumors that beer giant Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc., which handles the lion’s share of the company’s distribution, was interested in buying the all-natural drink maker hit a fever the next month sending shares up more than 32 percent.

But Belgian brewer InBev AG made an unsolicited bid for the St. Louis-based maker of Budweiser squashing hopes that the iconic beer maker was set to pay Hansen shareholders a hefty premium.

What’s more, some worried that the distribution agreement, which accounts for more than half of Hansen’s sales, could be hurt. “The bid creates uncertainty surrounding the distribution relationship between Hansen and (Anheuser-Busch),” Mark Astrachan, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus, said in a research report. Hansen shares swooned 33 percent through July 3.

But, hold on. The ride wasn’t over.

The stock shot up 15 percent after industry experts said, deal or no deal, Hansen was sitting pretty.

“Continued energy drink category growth and favorable economics at the distribution level make it unlikely that a beer wholesaler would stop selling Monster Energy (drinks),” Astrachan said. He estimated that Anheuser-Busch reaps twice the profit selling Monster drinks than selling beer.

But last week, Hansen held what analysts called a vague conference call one that provided few specifics and discussed mostly industry issues. Hansen shares subsequently fell the most in two months, hitting a 52-week low of $24.11 in trading during the day after the conference call.

Hansen said that growth was slowing due to the economy while rising competition was not helping.

“The growth of the entire beverage industry has slowed dramatically, consistent with the general slowdown in the weak U.S. economy,” said Rodney Sacks, the company’s chief executive, in the call.

The stock closed July 10 at $25.48, and is down 40 percent for the year.

But is another upswing in the cards?

Kaumil Gajrawala, an analyst with UBS AG, still sees strength in the company and said Hansen is undervalued.

“Aside from macro issues impacting the entire sector, we believe trends are solid,” said Gajrawala.

Hansen is also due to report second-quarter earnings the week of Aug. 4.

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