L.A.’s economy has started to recover from the recession and the rebound should pick up steam for the rest of this year and into next year, according to a forecast by the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.
Thanks to strong recoveries in the entertainment, tourism and trade sectors, job losses should moderate during the second half of 2010 and turn into significant job gains in 2011, forecast co-authors Jack Kyser and Nancy Sidhu said in the report, which was made available to the media before its Wednesday release.
“The entertainment and trade sectors have shown much bigger gains and much more quickly than we expected back in February,” said Sidhu, the LAEDC’s chief economist.
For all of 2010, Los Angeles County will lose about 45,000 payroll jobs, a drop of about 1 percent. That’s a significant relief after the 240,000 jobs lost in 2009, a 6 percent decline. The largest job losses will be in manufacturing, construction and government, while the film industry should continue to see strong job gains.
Sidhu said much of the job creation in the entertainment sector can be attributed to the recent enactment of state tax incentives designed to keep filming in the region.
By 2011, job losses should turn into job gains. Kyser and Sidhu predict an increase of about 47,000 jobs. That should push the unemployment rate – now at 12.2 percent – down to about 11.7 percent.
During the next 18 months, the strongest sectors of the Los Angeles economy will likely be international trade/goods movement, tourism, business and professional services and the film and television industry. The forecast gave each of these sectors a “B” rating.
Apparel, some health care services and the aerospace defense sector are expected to lag behind; they each received “C” or “C-“ ratings.
The forecast also looked at economic performance in several geographic parts of the county. Thanks to the strong showing in the entertainment sector, the Hollywood/Koreatown area, the San Fernando Valley and the Westside should each see little or no job losses in 2010. Meanwhile, significant job losses tied to manufacturing are expected in the San Gabriel Valley and down the San Gabriel River corridor.