Economists at California Lutheran University on Tuesday had a dour outlook for the state and national economy, with international trade and retail spending one of the few bright spots in California.

CLU’s Center for Economic Research and Forecasting expects no significant job growth in California until late next year. The forecast expects 1.1 percent non-farm job losses in the end of the current quarter, slowly improving to 0.4 percent growth by the third quarter of next year.

The forecast does see some a “slight strengthening” in the retail sector. The forecast had earlier expected negative growth well into next year, but recent economic data caused a change in expectations.

“After a while things wear out and people have to replace them,” said forecast Executive Director Bill Watkins during an event webcast from CLU in Thousand Oaks.

The state’s international trade outlook is one of the few area in which the forecast it slightly bullish. That in large part due the state’s location on the Pacific Rim and China’s continued growth despite the worldwide recession.

Complicating matters in the state is the continued budget stalemate in Sacramento, with most legislators heading home for a break while a small group continues negotiations. Watkins said it’s likely state government spending will continue to be off and there will be great temptation to raise taxes and fees on businesses.

“California is an extremely uncertain place to do business right now,” Watkins said. “Who’s going to pay for the deficit?”