It’s time for that annual exercise among the dismal scientists the year-ahead economic forecast.

Over the next few weeks, you’ll be reading a lot of projections for the coming year from a wide range of economists. People will actually pay good money to attend symposiums where these forecasts will be bandied about usually with crisp efficiency by a handful of economists whose names frequent this and other papers. (The Business Journal will no doubt include some of those guesses er, projections in our own year-ahead package.)

Should we be paying attention? To some extent, perhaps. But their track records over the years have been mixed, at best. If they’re being honest, most economic forecasters will tell you that there are a lot of presumptions in those outlooks.

Bob Parry, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, was pretty candid about the process of prognostication in our interview with him, beginning on the facing page. Of course, economists have one thing going for them: Not many of us remember what they predicted 12 months ago.

Mark Lacter

Editor