In 2015, about 65 out of every 100 container-equivalents loaded with imports arriving at the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach originated in China.

That ratio amounted to more than 4.9 million TEUs crossing the Pacific Ocean that year – significantly dwarfing the second “largest” share of import cargo from Vietnam, which accounted for just over five of those 100 TEUs.

Fast-forward five years. China-sourced imports climbed in raw numbers in 2020 to nearly 5.4 million TEUs – the acronym for 20-foot-equivalent units, the standard measure of cargo across varying container dimensions. However, total imports grew at a much higher rate, by nearly 1.1 million. Total imports from Vietnam more than doubled, along with its overall share of the pie to 10.1%.

Last year, import numbers from China were essentially flat compared to 2020 – up by just 15,000 – but its share of the big picture dropped sharply – from 61% in 2020 to 53.4% last year. Over a decade, trans-Pacific goods sourcing to the busiest container port in the United States – which accounts for at least a third of the nation’s imports – grew by about 2.5 million TEUs, eroding China’s 11.3% share.

What happens at San Pedro Bay doesn’t stay there. The cargo decisions made by global manufacturers and government trade negotiators are reshaping supply chains, industrial real estate and port infrastructure across Southern California – and the region’s port leaders are betting billions that they can parlay disruption into dominance.

“Big picture, this shift reflects a broader realignment in global trade patterns and underscores the continued investments in ports like ours,” said Noel Hacegaba, the chief executive of the Port of Long Beach. “In 2019, 70% of the port’s cargo was tied to China. Today that figure has fallen to 60%, while trade with Southeast Asian nations continues to grow.”

Realignment in action

While the shift is notable, it isn’t exactly surprising.

From the early days of his 2016 presidential campaign, President Donald Trump banged the drum about the United States’ trade deficit and was especially critical of our reliance on Chinese imports. The sloganeering about the tariffs that would come to define each of Trump’s presidencies focused on Beijing’s hostility toward the United States as well as the loss of domestic manufacturing jobs to outsourced labor abroad.

Between Trump’s two presidencies, former President Joe Biden essentially continued the pivot away from China by pursuing additional trade agreements and pushing through legislation to bolster domestic manufacturing capacity.

The evolving global trade landscape drew the attention of panelists at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference last month, where U.S. Council for International Business President and Chief Executive Whitney Baird said we’re at an “inflection point” and witnessing a “fundamental reassessment” of the status quo.

“From the perspective of the Trump Administration – and frankly the administrations that came just before,” Baird said, “there has been a reassessment of the U.S. place and support for the (World Trade Organization) and other multilateral institutions that I think, from their perspective, didn’t serve the United States fully and didn’t successfully discipline non-market economies like China that didn’t really play by the rules.”

The beneficiaries of this shift have so far been developing or newly industrialized nations in Southeast Asia. Last year, Vietnam exported nearly 1.55 TEUs through L.A.-Long Beach, representing 15.3% of its yearly haul and a 292% increase over its 2015 exports. Thailand has also rapidly risen to become the third-largest trading partner at our ports, accounting for 5.62% of the 2025 import haul. Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia have also seen significant gains in their exports to the San Pedro Bay over the past decade.

And this is all happening as imports in general continue to rise.

“Even as the volume of trade with China has fallen over the years, our cargo volumes continue to grow,” Hacegaba said. “Last year, we set an all-time record. Other countries in Southeast Asia are picking up the slack.”

They’re also picking up the slack in cargo valuation. Research from Jones Lang LaSalle, published in April, indicates that cargo imports through L.A., Long Beach, and the Port of Hueneme in Ventura County have exceeded the value of Chinese imports since March 2025. Additionally, cargo from other East Asian nations has remained competitive with China since May 2025 – even surpassing China’s twice.

Still, China remains important

The sheer scale of China as a geopolitical power limits how much its trading neighbors can disengage from it.

After all, even with the shift, China remains the point of origin for more than half of the imports to San Pedro Bay. The reality is even more pronounced for nations in immediate proximity to China.

According to Port of L.A. Executive Director Gene Seroka, it’s because of this that supply chain and procurement professionals tend to adopt a “China plus one” philosophy when sourcing materials for their companies.

“The institutional knowledge that’s carried with China manufacturers, logisticians, shippers, relationships, et cetera is really hard to break,” Seroka said. “Folks have been trying their level best to say, ‘OK, if I’m sourcing 80% of my goods out of China, I want the other balance 20% to come from XYZ country,’ and therefore they can build up a little bit of the capabilities from design to manufacture to delivery.”

Baird noted this was a strong reason why companies and business leaders, to some extent, desired a return to the status quo and away from unpredictability.

“Across the board, there are inputs that China produces that at this point can’t be produced elsewhere. I do think that China’s threats on critical minerals definitely got the administration’s attention and you see a strong pivot with this administration pushing investment and diversifying the supply chain in critical minerals,” she said. “Broadly speaking, for U.S. business, the best outcome would be something that maintains a wary respect, some guardrails and a continuation of a relatively predictable set of supply chains.”

She also said that “broadly speaking, the administration will continue the work of the last several administrations, which is looking at ways to lessen U.S. dependence on China as a source of inputs and production.”

That dependence means that more Western-aligned trading partners will have to find ways to leverage economic concessions from how China does business. This comes at a time when Beijing has articulated a plan to escalate its so-called “Belt and Road” initiative to export manufacturing prowess overseas, particularly in the Global South.

“Think about the level of investment of China in Asia-Pacific, in Oceana in particular: decoupling from China is just never going to happen,” said John Denton, secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce, in the Global Conference panel. “Can you imagine Indonesia unpicking all the factories? It’s not going to happen, so we actually have to work out how to live with this, but part of that is China has to change and actually evolve its economic model to be more aligned.”

China’s expansion of its Belt and Road initiative was outlined in its latest five-year plan this past November. Experts and observers have signaled that this level of foreign investment by China in its neighboring partners could significantly escalate global trade disruption – and serve as an end-around for tariffs placed on Chinese imports.

“They’re going to go around the world and set up operations. That’s what the changing world scenario will be – in the past, it was all ‘let’s just put tariffs on China.’ That’s no longer going to work,” Michael Roberts, chief executive of HSBC Bank, said at the Global Conference. Considering the numerous companies worldwide competing against Chinese businesses, “they need to understand this massive amount of capital-to-production capacity is coming out now and will come out in a very intensive way for the next 15-20 years and I think that’s going to be the most sizable change to the world economic order going forward.”

How L.A., Long Beach seize moment

Leaders at the San Pedro Bay ports are aiming to capitalize on new developments and shifts as they implement plans to essentially double their cargo-handling output in the coming decades.

Part of this plan, Seroka said, is to demonstrate that, amid whatever changes in Washington, his past 12 years at the helm remain consistent.

“I think the environment during meetings with overseas trading partners has changed substantially. Folks step in a little bit more leery to begin with, and then once they understand that Los Angeles remains its own place – that the people here at the port and in the supply chain remain constant – there’s a bit more ease that comes through in the conversations,” he said. “Part of our job is to continue to foster those strong relationships and maximize the trade, even though now we see more trade barriers than ever before.”

Infrastructure upgrades will help the twin ports keep pace with the ever-increasing volume of cargo flowing through them. Their combined cargo numbers in 2025 set an all-time high, and although projections indicate a dip from that this year, imports have remained above the five-year average for nearly all of the past 24 months.

As terminal and channel upgrades improve ship access, efforts are underway to speed the movement of cargo out of the port complexes. This has become especially important as more cargo is sourced from Southeast Asia.

The $1.8 billion Pier B on-dock rail support facility project at the Port of Long Beach – which will triple on-dock rail volume by 2032 – is a key piece of that puzzle.

“When cargo is sourced from Southeast Asia instead of China, that adds two or three days on the water. That makes the voyage longer and us less competitive,” Hacegaba said. “With Pier B, that’ll improve our on-dock capacity and improve our transactions downward. Speed to market is a key to our success and rail connectivity is a key to our future.”

The wider region seems to anticipate continued growth as well. According to JLL, industrial leasing in Southern California has increased for the past two years, and this year is on track to roughly match last year’s 85 million square feet; about 23 million square feet were leased in the first quarter this year.

However, regardless of how the balance of domestic versus overseas manufacturing or of imports from China versus elsewhere shakes out, Seroka echoed confidence in the years to come, speculating that the U.S. will remain “trade-dependent” for at least the next decade.

“We have natural resources, agriculture products, and patented trademarked goods that no one in the world has but wants. We can absolutely step up our efforts on the international landscape with American goods,” he said. “We’ll also continue to be very dependent on imports from other locations around the world, because they can make it better, faster and more cost-effective than anything else here in the United States.”