n the 1982 science fiction classic “Blade Runner,” Detective Rick Deckard zipped across the night sky over downtown Los Angeles in flying cars – the Spinners.

In just a few years, the arrival of air taxis could turn that cinematic vision into a reality.

Technically known as electric vertical take-off and landing – or eVTOL – aircraft, air taxis resemble a sleek, futuristic hybrid between a private jet and a helicopter with more than one motor. While the concept of vertical flight originated well before the “Jet Age” post-World War II, it was a 2009 video about the NASA Puffin that spurred commercial interest in developing the modern eVTOL designs.

Led by Joby Aviation Inc., Archer Aviation Inc. and BETA Technologies Inc., the push toward scaling eVTOL aircraft gained more momentum when President Donald Trump’s administration decided to accelerate air taxi development in an international race for aerospace dominance.

The Federal Aviation Administration’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, or “eIPP,” involves public-private partnerships to build regulatory frameworks for safety. It would test various categories of the eVTOL aircraft, including urban air taxis, delivery drones and emergency medical aircraft, ahead of mass rollout into the national airspace.

While Joby Aviation is based in Santa Cruz and Archer Aviation in San Jose, both firms have big plans to use Los Angeles as testing ground. Local companies, such as Long Beach-based Odys Aviation Inc., are also pushing through with their own takes on VTOL aircraft.

With multiple companies reaching the final stage of testing and certification, the industry has hit an “inflection point,” said Ernst & Young consultant Colleen Reiche. Archer Aviation was the first to clear the third phase of the FAA’s four-phase certification process, with Joby also edging closer to the finish line.

According to Joby’s Aug. 5 shareholder letter detailing its second-quarter earnings, its first eIPP flights are slated for September in Texas. Passengers may expect a first takeoff as soon as this year. The eIPP program has also begun demonstration flights across 26 U.S. states this summer, including California. The first one already flew from Virginia to Maryland with a BETA aircraft.

“I would call it at a genuine inflection point, but one to view with eyes open,” Reiche said. “The question has shifted from ‘can these aircraft fly?’ to ‘will people trust them enough to build a real market?’ The technology is largely a question of when, not if.”

Local opportunities and challenges

The air taxi arrived with as much excitement as concern.

On the one hand, its advantages have led some to believe it is a game changer in transportation. Joby’s first demonstration flight in April traveled from New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport to midtown Manhattan in about 10 minutes, a significant decrease from the approximate hour it takes to travel by car, traffic notwithstanding.

Compared to the deafening sounds of a traditional helicopter, the aircraft generates noise comparable to a household vacuum during landing and takeoff. Once in the air, the noise drops below 45 dBA – lower than the hum of a refrigerator and similar to light rain when heard from the ground. Multiple motors also make the aircraft safer – if one fails, others keep it moving.

In addition, the eVTOL aircraft is more environmentally friendly, which can make it cheaper to fly than a helicopter or a private jet. Reiche estimated operating costs to be about 40% lower than those of a helicopter and roughly 90% lower in carbon dioxide emissions. Using batteries or hybrid engines, VTOL aircraft can also steer away from ongoing uncertainties of the jet fuel crisis and ensure a smoother path to deployment. Furthermore, while it may not make business sense for major airlines to serve a small town, eVTOL aircraft might come in handy.

The competitive advantages would open up a huge market, according to PitchBook Data Inc. senior analyst Jim Corridore.

“This is for highly congested markets like between Los Angeles and San Francisco, getting to the airport in JFK from Manhattan, (etc.),” he said. “It’s going to start out for probably the wealthy at first, but then it should, once production scales up, filter down to more and more addressable people as costs come down.”

As a major transportation hub, L.A. is leading the way.

After being named the official air taxi provider for the 2028 Olympics and Paralympics and for Team USA, Archer announced plans to build a countywide network connecting key locations, including LAX, Sofi Stadium, Burbank, and USC. It acquired Hawthorne Airport last year, which will serve as its central operations hub and an innovation testbed for developing AI-powered aviation technologies.

“We want to transform the way people get around Los Angeles and leave a legacy that shapes the future of transportation in America. There’s no better time to do that than during the LA28 Games,” said Adam Goldstein, Archer founder and chief executive, in a statement. “I can’t wait to see Midnight flying passengers over Los Angeles, emblazoned with the Team USA logo and the Olympic Rings and Paralympic Agitos.”

Joby is also expanding into key markets within the City of Angels. In April, real estate firm Reuben Brothers announced a partnership with Joby to build an electric air taxi vertiport in Century City. A Joby press release said that beyond certification and its eIPP program participation, the company is focusing on scaling commercially in the U.S., especially in L.A. and New York.

However, challenges remain ahead of a mass commercial rollout. None of the leading prototypes have earned final FAA certification, the infrastructure for charging and grid capacity has yet to be built, and a pilot and maintenance workforce still needs to be trained. Public trust, Reiche pointed out, would be a major question to answer.

“You can certainly power one or two of these aircraft to do a cool demonstration. But the really hard problem is: how do we ensure that we can power hundreds or thousands of these potentially in the future?” she said. “One of the key perspectives on this market is around answering and grappling with some of the harder problems sooner, before they become a bigger problem.”

The business landscape

The fast-developing sector is attracting significant investor interest.

The transportation industry has quickly moved to secure key partnerships. Toyota Motor Corp. invested nearly $900 million in Joby for manufacturing and certification, sharing its engineers to work alongside the Joby team in Santa Cruz. Stellantis and United Airlines Inc. are aggressively backing Archer, with the latter placing a $1 billion order for its aircraft in 2021.

Investment is also flowing into different niches in the market. Beyond electric vehicles, hybrid aircraft makers such as Long Beach-based Odys are seeing more business. Focusing on long-range transportation beyond city-to-city travel, Odys is tapping into the defense market with higher payloads and greater electrical load support. It plans to deliver its first vehicle, an unmanned aircraft, in the first quarter of 2027. Provisional orders have now reached more than 1,600, a $11 billion backlog.

“We make the hybrid power systems, and that is really the core technology and the core capability of our company, and we really planted a flag there big in 2020,” said Odys Chief Executive James Dorris. “At the time, the whole rest of the industry was focused purely on batteries. We got a lot of strange looks from investors at the time. We don’t get the strange looks anymore, and we have an enormous number of external airframe companies now coming to us asking for help in making their aircraft (with) longer range and hybrid propulsion.”

The ultimate business outlook for air taxis may hinge on a handful of pioneers who will have to make their case in a spectacular debut. The Olympics will be a “hard globally broadcast deadline” that concentrates capital, certification urgency, and infrastructure investment into a single moment, Reiche said.

The real value lies in validation rather than volume, she said. Public trust is the prize that air taxi providers are going after.

For now, companies are relying on official certification, eIPP demonstrations, and sound and virtual reality testing to give the public greater familiarity and transparency. To stay afloat before people accept them as an everyday transit option, she further pointed out, there may be an opportunity to capitalize on opportunities beyond serving passengers.

“Just as important is a near term revenue bridge because passenger service alone won’t pay the bills early on. That’s where an opportunity is starting with cargo, medical missions, things like that,” she said. “Where, for example, one state’s federal program rollout is explicitly phased, starting with cargo, then evolving to medical response, and then passengers. So, this is as much an advanced manufacturing and supply chain challenge as a technology one.”