Los Angeles County will see moderate job growth of just over 1 percent for the rest of this year, but the median home price will rise as much as 10 percent.
Those are the projections from an economic forecast released April 26 from Los Angeles-based Beacon Economics.
The forecast notes that nonfarm employment in Los Angeles County increased by 1.4 percent between February 2017 and February 2018, a slower growth rate than in both neighboring Orange County (1.9 percent) and the Inland Empire (3.5 percent). The forecast projects the growth rate for the next 12 months will fall in the same range: between 1 percent and 1.5 percent. That translates to an increase of between 45,000 and 67,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, the near-record low unemployment rate of 4.5 percent will continue to “edge down,” the forecast states, but refrains from giving a specific percentage.
Meanwhile, the median home price for Los Angeles County reached a record high of $599,800 during the fourth quarter of 2017, an increase of 7.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2016, Robert Kleinhenz, executive director for research at Beacon, said in the forecast report. The forecast projects home prices will continue to climb between 5 percent and 10 percent this year, putting the median price at between $630,000 and $660,000.
Kleinhenz said in a statement accompanying the forecast that while job increases and home prices rises continue, there are risks ahead for the state’s economy.
“Both the nation and state are experiencing a remarkably long economic expansion and it’s good news that fundamental drivers such as employment continue to trend positively,” Kleinhenz said in the statement. “However, we are concerned an extremely tight labor market and a lack of housing supply may slow or hinder future growth as well as the general vitality of the California economy.”
Economy, education, energy and transportation reporter Howard Fine can be reached at hfine@labusinessjournal.com. Follow him on Twitter @howardafine.
