Fast Casual Chains See Mixed Stock Changes

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Fast Casual Chains See Mixed Stock Changes
Eatery: Twin Peaks, a sports bar concept owned by Fat Brands Inc.

Los Angeles is home to a number of publicly traded fast-casual restaurant chains. But despite the rising food and labor costs that all have had to contend with, it’s been a mixed bag so far this year for stock prices at the companies.

The Cheesecake Factory Inc. in Calabasas has seen its stock increase 11% this year from an adjusted close of $33.86 in January to a close of $37.50 on July 9.

And Sweetgreen Inc., the West Adams-based healthy food restaurant chain, showed a 121% increase since the start of the year when its stock closed at $11.07 on Jan. 2 to a close last week of $24.41.

Meanwhile, Dine Brands Global Inc., the Pasadena-based owner of IHOP and Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill + Bar, saw its share price decline 34% from the adjusted close of $47.88 on Jan. 2 to a close of $31.43 on July 9.

Also showing a decline was Fat Brands Inc. in Beverly Hills, with a 19% decrease from the adjusted close on Jan. 2 of $5.94 to one of $4.84 on July 9.

Andrew Wiederhorn, chair of Fat Brands, was indicted in May on federal fraud charges. Wiederhorn, who had been chief executive of the restaurant franchiser and owner until stepping down in May of last year, was charged with participating in a scheme to conceal $47 million in distributions he received in the form of shareholder loans. The company’s stock has fallen since the indictment.

Strong industry

Still, the fast casual industry is a strong segment of the market.

According to a report from last year by Allied Market Research, the global fast casual market was valued at $124.5 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $337.8 billion by 2032.

The North American market dominated the fast casual industry, with a 45% market share in 2022.

Consumer tastes, habits and buying behavior are evolving swiftly in the region, the report said.

“Consumers in the region now favor natural, clean-label and organically grown food, which has driven the fast casual restaurant market share in North America,” the report added.

However, it continued, the fastest growing market for fast casual restaurants during its forecast period of last year through 2032 is going to be the Asia-Pacific market.

“The rapid expansion of the middle class and the working population is a significant driver of growth in the Asia-Pacific fast casual restaurant market,” the report said. “These restaurant chains maintain a balance between affordability and quality, making them an appealing option for customers in the region.”

Asia-Pacific expansion

The four fast casual brands in Los Angeles County, however, are slow to expand into Asia-Pacific.

Only one – Cheesecake Factory – opened a new location under a licensing agreement in that region recently.

But that doesn’t mean that the others aren’t expanding.

Fat Brands, which owns 18 restaurant concepts including Fatburger, Round Table Pizza, Fazoli’s and Twin Peaks, was forecasting to open between 125 and 150 new units this year – a 20% increase over last year.

Sweetgreen Chief Financial Officer Mitch Reback said during a May conference call with analysts to discuss the first quarter earnings that the company anticipated opening this year between 23 and 27 new restaurants, approximately seven of which will contain the Infinite Kitchen.

The Infinite Kitchen is the automated service that Sweetgreen began a little more than a year ago with a store in Naperville, Illinois. It also has an automated kitchen in Huntington Beach.

Dine Brands has its own growth plans as well, although they are a bit more modest.

John Peyton, the chief executive of the restaurant franchiser, said during a conference call from May 8 with analysts to discuss fiscal first quarter financials that during the quarter Applebee’s had net domestic closures of five stores and that the company was on track with its domestic guidance of 25 to 35 closures this year.

For the first quarter, IHOP opened five restaurants domestically and closed nine for a net closure of four locations, Peyton said.

“As is standard in IHOP’s development cycle, we see more closures earlier in the year with new openings concentrated toward the latter half of the year,” he added. “We remain on target for our full year guidance with net 15 to 25 new domestic restaurants.”

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