Should Taiwan be an independent country? And should the U.S. support Taiwan in its quest for independence?

There are a lot of people in Washington, Southern California and elsewhere who would answer yes to both of those questions, and they are actively pursuing nationhood for Taiwan. If successful, they will almost certainly put this country on a collision course with Mainland China.

Is Taiwanese independence worth a confrontation with the largest, most populous nation in the world? As a native of Taiwan and an American investment banker doing business in both China and Taiwan, I say absolutely not, for several reasons.

China has insisted repeatedly over the years that it opposes independence for Taiwan. Just a few days ago China’s President Jiang Zemin reiterated this stand, telling The New York Times that his country is determined to “achieve complete reunification” with Taiwan. In the same breath he warned that “China can never renounce the use of force” against those who “try to separate Taiwan away from the rest of China.”

Advocates of independence pay no heed to this resolve, and blithely promote actions that almost certainly would provoke China.

One example came last month when Rep. Bob Schaffer of Colorado introduced a resolution in Congress calling for admission of Taiwan to the United Nations. That, of course, would be tantamount to recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation, something the People’s Republic would never stand for.

Then there is the steady drumbeat of demands that the United States provide more weaponry and military assistance to Taiwan. Sen. Jesse Helms has long been in the forefront of this drive, and he has many supporters inside and outside of government.

As much as China wants good trade relations with the West, I don’t believe it would hesitate to go to war if it feels that the United States has gone too far in providing weapons and military support to Taiwan.

There’s another factor at play: Taiwanese businessmen and industrialists have made huge investments on the mainland somewhere between $40 billion and $100 billion, creating an estimated 3 million jobs in the process. These owners and investors certainly want to be part of the system on the mainland.

Reflecting this interest, a high-level economic advisory council in Taiwan recommended a broad further easing of restrictions on trade and investment on the mainland.

Notably missing from the group’s recommendation, though, was any statement about reunification with China. And it’s not likely that Taiwan’s political leadership would willingly give up the degree of political independence it now has.

To me, it all comes down to this: The United States has nothing to gain and a lot to lose by supporting independence for Taiwan. I seriously doubt that the People’s Republic would impose Communistic rule on Taiwan and interfere with its highly productive economic system. If the United States will ignore the saber-rattlers and provocateurs, independence for Taiwan ultimately will become a non-issue.

David Kuo is a principal in the Los Angeles investment banking firm of NewCap Partners Inc.