Studio Has Skin In Game Movie

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Universal Pictures has made a big bet on its $160 million “Warcraft” movie, which will open this Friday.

Based on Activision Blizzard Inc.’s “World of Warcraft,” it seeks to buck the trend of box-office flops that have plagued video game-to-film adaptations in recent years.

Given the long lead time it takes to develop a movie version – in this case, it’s been 10 years – the expectation that the original fans of the game will show up and buy tickets seems like a longshot.

“The remnant market for ‘Warcraft’ the game is aging,” said Jeff Watson, interactive media and games professor at USC’s School of Cinematic Arts.

“Not only is this game old, but many of the people who were most ferociously consuming it have kids now. Are they still interested in video games at all?”

It’s not likely, he said, but Watson still understands why studio executives would invest in a video game-related project.

“Video games have huge market penetration,” said Watson. “And there is a nostalgia factor for a game like ‘World of Warcraft.’”

At the height of the online game’s popularity, “Warcraft” amassed about 12.5 million players worldwide, according to Eric Handler, an analyst for MKM Partners in New York. Risk-averse Hollywood has long been interested in making investments in intellectual property that can draw a built-in audience to the theater, but the huge production budgets and long development cycles for these types of movies have largely been proved to be difficult or impossible to recoup in ticket sales.

Walt Disney Co.’s 1993 game-inspired “Super Mario Brothers,” which earned just $21 million on a $48 million budget and suffered from negative reviews, was one of the first to disappoint, while “Ratchet & Clank” from Gramercy Pictures was the most recent box-office bomb, taking in only $8 million on a $20 million budget at the end of April.

Despite that history, Sony Pictures’ “Angry Birds,” based on the mobile game of the same name, opened to a favorable response by theatergoers in May, though its critical ratings weren’t strong. The animated movie grossed $38 million in its opening weekend, to claim the No. 1 spot ahead of “Captain America: Civil War” and “Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising.”

Legendary effort

The makers of “Warcraft,” Burbank’s Legendary Pictures and Universal, hope to have similar success, and so far, the film has had a strong opening overseas. Universal released the “epic fantasy adventure” film at the end of last month in 20 territories, where it finished first in 19 with an estimated total take of $31.6 million, according to box office-tracking site Box Office Mojo.

But analysts believe the U.S. debut will prove to be more challenging. Based on advance ticket sales, the film is expected to open at $29 million and reach around $69 million total domestically, said Daniel Loria, editorial director at BoxOfficePro.com in New York.

“A lukewarm reception to trailers leads us to believe the film will struggle to cross over to a wider audience,” he said. “This will likely equate a to a front-loaded opening weekend, with its core audience turning out and the advantage of 3-D and Imax premiums to lift the overall take in its North American debut.”

Moguls misunderstand

Watson pointed to the fundamental misunderstanding by studio executives of the primary reason gaming culture has taken hold of a growing number of varying demographics, such as older men and women of all ages.

“What was the real value proposition of the original game?” USC’s Watson asked of “World of Warcraft,” adding, “It wasn’t the story the game had to tell. It was the multiplayer experience, and the opportunity to meet other people and work with them to overcome challenges.”

Indeed, in most gaming experiences, he said, “the primary pleasure is interactivity and the chance to build your own story.”

But the notion hasn’t been completely overlooked in the case of “Warcraft” the movie. Activision’s Blizzard Entertainment unit and theater operator Regal Entertainment Group are offering a promotion whereby filmgoers can receive a free digital copy of the “World of Warcraft” game in an effort to build on the movie-to-game success of other films such as “Ghostbusters” and the James Bond franchise.

In a reciprocal fashion, players of the “World of Warcraft” game will have the opportunity to customize their in-game weapons with four movie-inspired looks throughout the summer.

Collaborations in the other direction have largely been profitable. The global success of Disney’s “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” movie at the box office in November helped game maker Electronic Arts – which licenses the content – beat analyst earning expectations for its “Star Wars” games in the first few months of this year. EA said it sold more than 14 million units of the “Star Wars: Battlefront” game in the 2015 fiscal year ended March 30, and said 15 percent of the players were new consumers to EA.

“We’ll most likely have at least one ‘Star Wars’ title a year over the next three to four years,” Blake Jorgensen, EA’s chief financial officer, told analysts in a conference call last month. “Next year, we will see ‘Star Wars: Battlefront’ back with bigger and better worlds, because we now have the new movies to work off of, not just the historical movies that we used before.”

The producers of “Warcraft” are seeking success in the reverse to bring in new audiences for a film about a game they might not have played.

“Warcraft” and the upcoming “Jason Bourne” movie both need strong performances for Universal, which has struggled this year to maintain market share after a record 2015.

The studio’s domestic ticket sales last year topped more than $2 billion with megahits such as “Jurassic World” ($652 million), “Furious 7” ($353 million), and “Minions” ($336 million). As of the end of last month, it held just 8 percent of the market share in box-office receipts behind Disney, 20th Century Fox, and Warner Bros., according to Box Office Mojo.

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