Investors See Shares of Jean Makers as Poor Fit

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If shoppers in Europe and Asia are holding off on new pairs of Levi’s, they’re probably not slipping into pricier jeans from local apparel makers Guess or True Religion, right?

That seems to be investors’ take on True Religion Apparel Inc. of Vernon and Guess Inc. of Los Angeles. Stocks in those companies dropped about 10 percent last week, in large part due to the announcement of a rough quarter by Levi Strauss & Co. Both companies were among the biggest losers on the LABJ Stock Index for the week ended July 11. (See page 32.)

On July 10, the San Francisco denim maker reported poor fiscal second quarter earnings as sales fell 10 percent in recession-wracked Europe and 12 percent in Asia. It was the first time Asian sales have fallen in two years, while sales in the Americas, Levi Strauss’ largest market, grew only 1 percent.

It’s not just denim companies that are reporting poor sales, however, said Mary Ross Gilbert, a managing director at Imperial Capital in Century City who follows Levi Strauss and other apparel makers.

“All the high-end companies’ stocks have gotten hit in the last few days,” she said. “Burberry reported seeing slowing growth in China. Their sales in China grew 15 percent, but historically had been growing at 30 percent.”

Slower growth and dampened consumer spending in Asia, particularly in China, are big concerns for fashion brands, especially high-end ones. The country has been a key driver of sales growth for luxury goods.

Investors are likely concerned about Guess and True Religion because if Levi’s, an established brand with a big global presence, is struggling in Europe and Asia, other brands will likely see similar results or worse, said Diana Katz, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets in New York.

“Levi’s is one of the market leaders. If they’re declining, it would seem that the whole space is declining,” she said.

But it’s not all bad news. True Religion does the bulk of its business in the United States, and Katz said Asia is not an important market for the company. In addition, all apparel makers should see their costs come down in the next few quarters as they take advantage of lower cotton prices due to a bumper crop.

Meanwhile, China’s economic growth could speed up again later this year after the Communist Party congress, which will rejigger China’s political leadership. Gilbert said uncertainty leading up to the congress could be making consumers there more conservative.

“If we’re talking about China, the question is, is this temporary or something more fundamental?” Gilbert said. “I just think there’s more uncertainty keeping Chinese consumers at bay until the political picture has been determined later this year.”

Not all local denim makers took a hit, however. Shares of much smaller Joe’s Jeans Inc. ticked up slightly last week and were up about 2 percent the day after the Levi Strauss announcement.

Ed Timmons, a senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners LLC in Newport Beach, said trouble at Levi Strauss doesn’t mean trouble for Joe’s because the Commerce company doesn’t do much business abroad. Domestic sales make up about 95 percent of Joe’s revenue.

“They have a very small international presence at this point,” Timmons said. “They just signed a distribution agreement in Europe, but that business is in the single digits. Even if you see a slowdown in Europe, as we’re seeing now, it shouldn’t affect them much.”

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