After a horrible 2009 for the Los Angeles area economy, 2010 will be only slightly better. Plus a jobs recovery will be on hold until 2011, according to a forecast released Wednesday morning from the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.
While declaring the recession officially over, the LAEDC forecast calls for a net loss of 20,000 payroll jobs in Los Angeles County in 2010. That’s not as steep as the drop of 155,000 payroll jobs, or 4 percent, in 2009, but it will still keep the unemployment rate above 12 percent for most of the year.
“We’re going to continue to see job losses through the early part of the year,” said Jack Kyser, LAEDC economist. “Later in the year, more sectors will move into the growth mode and the jobs picture should turn positive.”
The forecast calls for modest job growth in health care services, the information sector, which includes motion picture and television production and private education.
But for most of 2010, the forecast calls for continued job losses in construction, manufacturing, retail trade and leisure/hospitality. And, for the first time in several years, government sector jobs are expected to shrink as cities grapple with large budget deficits.
But in 2011, the LAEDC forecast calls for a net 40,000 jobs being added to payrolls. More segments of the economy should report job increases, including real estate, leisure/hospitality, computer science and engineering.
The unemployment rate, however, will still be stuck at nearly 12 percent for 2011 as more people re-enter the labor force looking for work.
The LAEDC forecast also calls for two other key economic indicators to turn positive in 2010. Personal income, after dropping 1.5 percent in 2009, should grow 1.8 percent in 2010. And sales tax revenues, which plunged more than 10 percent in 2009, should eke out a 2 percent gain in 2010.
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