The Los Angeles economy has deteriorated more sharply than expected this year, pushing any hope for economic recovery well into 2010, according to a mid-year economic forecast to be released Wednesday.

The forecast from the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. calls for more “intense pain” for the local economy for the rest of 2009 and 2010 as the manufacturing, international trade, tourism and retail sectors continue to struggle.

Overall, the county will lose an estimated 168,000 payroll jobs in 2009 a 4.1 percent drop and an additional 79,000 jobs in 2010, according to forecast co-author Jack Kyser. The unemployment rate for 2009 should average 11.7 percent and soar to 12.8 percent in 2010.

“Those numbers are much bleaker than what we called for just six months ago,” Kyser said. “The magnitude of this recession has gotten worse and the recovery that much further off.”

In the last six months, Kyser said the downturn’s impact on manufacturing, non-residential construction, aerospace and motion picture/television production have all been worse than forecast.

What’s more, federal stimulus dollars have been slow to materialize.

“We expected the stimulus dollars to start arriving in earnest in the second half of 2009 and really help jump-start a recovery,” Kyser said. “Now it looks like we won’t see much until 2010. The paperwork and political complexity is just worse than we thought would occur.”

Another big risk factor for the local economy is the scope of cutbacks in state and local government budgets. The state budget deal hammered out this week calls for furloughs and pay cuts for state workers and will likely force local governments to cut their own payrolls.

Kyser said the only bright spots in the local economy remain health care services and private education.

Looking ahead, Kyser said that consumer and business confidence might improve by the middle of 2010, though it will likely be 2011 before the effects of a recovery become noticeable.