An earthquake with a magnitude similar to the one that recently rocked China is inevitable in Southern California and could cause about 2,000 deaths, injuries to 50,000 and $200 billion in damage if it happened today, the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey warn in a new report, the L.A. Times.

In the study, “The ShakeOut Scenario,” being released today, scientists examine the effects of a hypothetical 7.8-magnitude earthquake along the San Andreas fault on the region’s physical infrastructure and economic and social systems.

“The question is not if but when Southern California will be hit by a major earthquake — one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region,” the report says. “Unlike many other faults, the southern San Andreas fault produces no small earthquakes.”

The study, prepared by a multidisciplinary team that included scientists, government officials, emergency responders and utility experts, predicts that major freeways and rail lines would be severed. The fault crosses such major arteries as interstates 10 and 15.

“An earthquake of this size and scope is inevitable in Southern California, and we are simply not ready for it,” said Sue Perry, a U.S. Geological Survey staff scientist who contributed to the report. “An earthquake of that size could be the Katrina of Southern California.”

The scientists prepared a hypothetical model in which the quake occurs on Nov. 13, 2008, at 10 a.m., starting near the eastern shore of the Salton Sea and traveling northwest along the fault at two miles per second. A narrative, much like a movie script, depicts the “realistic outcome” of the quake.

Read the full L.A. Times story

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