Value of Unocal Reserves May Be as Slippery to Grasp as Oil

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In a few short months, Unocal Corp. has become one of the most sought-after properties in the oil industry, if rumors floated by “sources close to” various oil companies can be believed.


ChevronTexaco Corp., Chinese National Offshore Oil Co., and most recently Italian oil company Eni SpA have all reportedly expressed interest in the California oil company. (Neither Unocal nor the named suitors had confirmed any talks last week.)


Most of the discussion around Unocal’s attractiveness has focused on its natural gas and oil reserves off the coasts of Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh.


“Unocal has more natural gas in Asia than any company of its size,” said Fadel Gheit, oil analyst with Oppenheimer & Co. But there is some debate over just how valuable those assets are.


“People make the mistake of looking for a short cut to value that,” Gheit said. “It’s like saying ‘I own a 10,000-square-foot house in California.’ The question is, ‘Where is it?’ That affects its value.”


Since reserves are one measure of an oil company’s worth, there is incentive for executives to err on the side of optimism. In the past year-and-a-half, Royal Dutch/Shell Group and ChevronTexaco have had to restate bloated oil reserve estimates.


While there are rules governing the definition of “proved” and “unproved” reserves, the Securities and Exchange Commission doesn’t have the staff to count inventories or evaluate geological data, according to SEC spokesman John Heine. “The filer bears responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the information supplied,” he said.


That may be one reason why it’s taking so long for a bid for Unocal to materialize.



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The full version of this story

is available in the March 21 edition of the Los Angeles Business Journal.

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