That business about the Golden Globe Awards being an early predictor in recent years of what will get the best picture nod at the Oscars is all wrong.

It's actually been that way all along.

The last time the two awards differed was 1995, when the Best Picture Oscar went to "Braveheart," while Golden Globes went to "Sense and Sensibility" in the drama category and "Babe" in comedy/musical.

Since then, the Oscar winner has matched one of the two Golden Globe categories. Last year, it was "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" and the year before it was "Chicago."

In 1999, a little-known release called "American Beauty" received a Golden Globe award and went on to win the Oscar.

While the Golden Globes are handed out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a motley group of fewer than 100 members whose journalistic credentials are a perennial source of media speculation, it is the first big awards ceremony of the year and thus sets the bar.

The lock-step pattern could be different this year because the Oscar race is considered up for grabs. In the Golden Globe drama category, the nominees are "The Aviator," "Closer," "Finding Neverland," "Hotel Rwanda," "Kinsey," and "Million Dollar Baby." In the comedy or musical category, the nominees are "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," "The Incredibles," "Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera," "Ray" and "Sideways."

The Academy Award nominations are due out on Jan. 25 just 10 days after the Golden Globe Awards.

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