Get Set For Fall Follies
Comment
by Mark Lacter
Woody Allen long ago summed up life as being either “the horrible” or “the miserable” the perfect way, it seems, to describe the news machine these past few months.
After an unrelenting barrage of doom and gloom, with prospects of economic or manmade annihilation dominating the front page, the newspapers and cable channels are merely stoking, rehashing or embellishing in these blessed dog days.
Yes, there’s the media circus revolving around child abduction cases (even though FBI figures indicate there has been a decline in such crimes). The Enron story is perking up a bit and the recalcitrant Martha Stewart is always good for a headline or two. But much of the coverage is less revealing and more procedural.
Never before have I leafed through the papers and been relieved to read about only miserable news. In a post-9/11 world, it could be horrible beyond words.
The lull will not continue, of course. Give it another couple of weeks and we’ll be hard-pressed to remember which part of Europe was flooded and whether New York should be given a piece of the Academy Awards.
Trying to determine what will take their place is akin to preseason football polls and reading tea leaves. So rather than delve into the unknowable, let’s stick to some broad probabilities:
Terror Talk: The drumbeat of Sept. 11 already is being sounded, and when the dreaded anniversary finally arrives, there will be no place to hide. Besides the obligatory commemorations, expect another wave of administration-fueled scare stories about some potential attack and how we should be watchful of our color-coded government warnings. Attendance at houses of worship will spike as even the agnostics among us scan upward for hope.
Politics: This shapes up to be a huge election year at the local, state and national levels, and by October it will dominate the news (baring unexpected developments on the terrorism front). At stake is the proposed breakup of Los Angeles and control of the House and Senate. There’s also a boatload of state and local bond measures likely to get short shrift in the crunch of everything else and yes, that heart-stopping race for governor. Richard Riordan must be thanking his lucky stars that somebody else got stuck running against Gray Davis.
Markets: They call it the October jinx and like all historical patterns about the stock market, there’s always enough evidence for both fear and denial. It is worth noting some of the worst falls have occurred in October (1966, 1974, 1978, 1987, 1990, to name a few), but given the tumult of this spring and summer, not to mentioned a bear market now in its third year, there’s no telling what could happen this fall. One tradition unlikely to change: the cleaning of portfolios for end-of-the-year tax considerations, which, considering this year’s wreckage, does not bode especially well.
Economy: The ongoing muddle about whether we’re in for another recession or growth returning to early 2002 levels won’t be resolved for a while. Third quarter results coming out in October will not be stellar (August’s lackluster back-to-school sales provide a clue), which means that attention could focus on fourth quarter numbers and, with it, more uncertainty about consumer spending. President Bush will keep pushing his “don’t worry, be happy” philosophy, but we might be better off with something more substantive, like incentives to boost capital spending. Now, if there only was a little reassurance about the world being less miserable
Mark Lacter is editor of the Business Journal. He can be reached at
[email protected].
