When the going gets tough, the tough get anxious so they go to an economic forecast, hoping to get a glimpse of the road ahead.
Last week’s sellout crowd attending the Business Journal’s economic outlook conference provides a highly unscientific but revealing indicator of the stepped up interest in economic forecasting. And more is on the way: fall is the traditional season for similar gatherings that assess the following year.
Economic forecasting, said Tom Lieser, senior economist at UCLA Anderson Forecast, “is a counter-cyclical business.” One of the event’s featured speakers, Lieser said, “We are close to selling out our conferences at UCLA, too. It’s the first time that has happened since the OPEC days of the 1970s.” UCLA holds its quarterly forecast session next week.
Among the attendees looking for clarity was Janice M. Moulton, a portfolio manager at the Federal Reserve Bank in Los Angeles.
“We’re the central point of contact for a number of banks and bank holding companies (as such) we get anecdotal evidence and information from the bankers we talk to,” she said. “But we’re trying to get the information in a more structured way. There are a lot of mixed signals.”
Jack Kyser, chief economist with the L.A. Economic Development Corp. and also a speaker at the event, has been receiving lots of queries.
“When conditions in the economy get dicey, we get more phone calls, more e-mails,” he said. “People want to know what’s going on. This is a very, very unusual economic cycle, with so many conflicting trends.”
By better understanding those trends, some of the 300 attendees at the Business Journal gathering hoped to develop more profitable strategies. Among them: Jose Lozano, publisher of the La Opinion newspaper, which like most media operations, has struggled with slow local ad sales this year.
“We’re trying to keep a handle on where the economy is going over the next six to 12 months so we can develop our sales strategies and target the (ad) categories that are going to have some growth,” Lozano said.
Lozano added that he usually comes away from such forecast events with “some nuggets” that can be applied to business decisions.
For example, “we like to look at traffic into the ports, so we can gauge what kind of retail activity to expect in the holiday season,” he said.
Others in attendance were looking to pass the information along to their clients.
Lisa Goldman, managing director of investment banking firm Goldsmith-Agio-Helms in West L.A., represents sellers of middle-market companies.
“The business owners I represent sell for a number of reasons, only one of which is the economy, but clearly it’s sometimes a factor,” she said. “Hearing what (regional economists) have to say is important so we can tell our clients about what might be coming around the corner. It’s what many of our clients and prospective clients want to know.”
Learning which sectors are expected to heat up and cool down can also help Goldman decide which types of businesses to handle as clients. “We focus on the types of businesses that people want to buy,” Goldman said. “Right now, for example, we are seeing that health care is a great sector.”
Such is the nature of the massive L.A. economy, which is so diverse that certain sectors remain vibrant even amid broader slowdowns.
