John Dorfman—Now Isn’t The Time to Shun All International Stocks

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America is experiencing a wave of patriotic fervor in response to terrorist attacks. But if your portfolio is too All-American, I would advise making some changes.

In normal times, I try to devote at least 10 percent of my own portfolio, and clients’ portfolios, to non-U.S. stocks. In fact, I usually prefer 15 percent or more.

These are not normal times. But I don’t see any reason to discard the guideline. The U.S. faces a threat of recession and a threat from terrorism, with the latter exacerbating the former. So I think it’s prudent to diversify internationally.

For the coming 12 months, I will offer six recommendations. All six trade in the U.S., either as direct listings or as American depositary receipts (ADRs).

Let us start with a pair of Canadian energy stocks, Talisman Energy Inc. and PanCanadian Petroleum Ltd. I own both for clients. Both produce natural gas as well as oil.

Talisman gets about 40 percent of its revenue from drilling in the North Sea, another 40 percent from drilling in Canada, and the rest from drilling in Indonesia and Sudan. The company used to be affiliated with British Petroleum, and was known as BP Canada Inc. until 1993.

Last year, Talisman earned a return of greater than 27 percent on stockholders’ equity. Yet the stock sells for less than 8 times earnings, a genuine bargain in my book.

PanCanadian Petroleum, by contrast, drills in Canada and the U.S. in roughly equal amounts. At 6 times the past four quarters’ earnings, it is even cheaper than Talisman. Yet it earned a 30 percent return on stockholders’ equity last year.

Of course, natural gas prices have come down a long way from their peak this year, causing investor euphoria over energy stocks to deflate like a punctured balloon. Yet the current prices aren’t bad.

Analysts expect PanCanadian to show a 34 percent increase in earnings this year, on top of a 196 percent increase last year and a 133 percent increase the year before. If that constitutes “slowing earnings,” I will take that kind of slowing earnings any time.


Hardware large and small

Denison International Plc, a maker of such down-to-earth gear as hydraulic pumps, motors, manifold and valves. Denison has its headquarters in London. It gets a little more than half its sales in Europe, about a third in North America and the remainder in Asia and the Pacific region.

Denison’s balance sheet is quite clean, with debt only about 8 percent of stockholders’ equity. It earned a 16 percent return on equity last year, and the stock sells for about 11 times earnings and just under 1.0 times revenue.

On the other side of the world, in Hong Kong, I recommend Nam Tai Electronics Inc. The company makes a variety of communications and electronics products, such as palm-sized personal computers, personal digital assistants, calculators, card readers, display modules for cellular phones and battery packs.

Nam Tai has no debt whatsoever, as of June. It has earned a profit in each of the past nine years.

The ADRs for Nam Tai hit a high of $27 in 1997 but by mid-1998 had fallen to $12.50 and trade around the same level today. At that price, the shares are priced well under book value (corporate net worth per share, which is $15.46). They sell for 13 times earnings and provide a dividend yield of more than 3 percent, which is good in this market.

From Stockholm, Sweden, comes Autoliv Inc., the world’s largest maker of air bags, seat belts and other car-safety equipment. It acquired the air bag unit of Morton International Inc. in the U.S. in 1997, and acquired OEA Inc. (then one of my favorite stocks) in 2000.

Autoliv earned $1.95 a share in 1999, but last year declined to $1.67. This year it is expected to show a further decline to $1.10.


Cheap stock

That’s why the stock is as cheap as it is, having tumbled from $42.50 some four years ago to $15.59 now. I believe the current price is a bargain. It is 15 times earnings, 0.9 times book value and 0.4 times revenue.

Sixth and finally, I recommend my old favorite Banco Latinoamericano de Exportaciones SA, more familiarly known as Bladex. This stock is a major holding for me personally and for virtually all of my clients.

The bank was originally set up by the central banks of Latin America to facilitate trade. Its specialty is financing imports and exports throughout that region and is headquartered in Panama City, Panama, but the stock trades directly on the New York Stock Exchange.

Last year Banco Latinoamericano earned $4.80 a share, 12 cents shy of the previous year’s record earnings. This year analysts expect a record $5.33.

John Dorfman is a columnist with Bloomberg News.

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