If L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan follows through on his intention to explore running for governor, his high name recognition, deep pocketbook and moderate political stance should immediately vault him to the front of the short list of Republican candidates to challenge incumbent Democratic Gov. Gray Davis.
But, political observers said, running for governor would be no cakewalk, either in next March’s Republican primary or in the general election against Davis. And others question whether the termed-out mayor would have the proverbial “fire in the belly” to take on such a daunting campaign.
Last week, in interviews with this paper and other media outlets, Riordan said he’s looking to form an exploratory committee the first official step in running for a major political office before he leaves office on June 30. He added that he would make a final decision on whether to run by the end of the summer.
“I’ve had more people come to me about this, particularly leading Democrats, which I find particularly amazing,” Riordan said in an interview with Business Journal reporters and editors last week.
Riordan declined to name any of the Democrats who have sought him out to explore a run for governor. But one name that has surfaced is that of former campaign manager Clint Reilly, who managed several Democratic campaigns and Riordan’s first mayoral campaign.
Reilly, who lives in San Francisco and two years ago ran unsuccessfully himself for mayor of that city against incumbent Willie Brown, could not be reached for comment.
One prominent Democrat close to Riordan, billionaire businessman Eli Broad, said Riordan that would “make a formidable candidate” if he were to run, but that he hasn’t personally encouraged him.
“The subject has come up in discussions we’ve had between ourselves and with others, but I haven’t given him any advice,” Broad said. “If I were to give him advice as a friend, it would be to take a rest after serving eight years as mayor, not to go directly from the frying pan into the fire, so to speak. But it’s really up to him.”
Call from Bush
The initial call that set off the current round of gubernatorial speculation (Riordan briefly toyed with the idea of running for governor in January 1998) was from the nation’s top Republican, President George Bush. In that May 1 call, ostensibly made to congratulate Riordan on his 71st birthday, Bush reportedly told Riordan that he would make a “great governor.”
At the time, Riordan’s top press aide Ben Austin said that Riordan was “keeping an open mind, but he’s certainly leaning against running.”
Shortly afterwards, Riordan himself said tongue partly in cheek that, “I wouldn’t want to wish myself upon the rest of the people of California.”
Furthermore, Austin said that Riordan was not going to decide the issue until several weeks after he leaves office on June 30. The mayor has previously committed to accepting a position at the Los Angeles Unified School District, assisting Superintendent Roy Romer in getting more computers into classrooms.
But in just three short weeks, Riordan has changed his mind and hurried up his time schedule. In fact, one of the oft-cited theories making the rounds and one to which Riordan himself alluded last week is that he endorsed former Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa for mayor with an eye toward the governor’s mansion.
“Hopefully, he (Villaraigosa) would have some good thoughts toward me in his mind and would either be neutral or have less fire in his belly for the Democrats in that (gubernatorial) race,” Riordan told the Business Journal last week.
What happened in those three weeks that could have changed Riordan’s mind?
Certainly all the attention he has been getting could have made some difference. But just as important, some political observers argue, was the release earlier this month of new polls that show how vulnerable Davis is, due to the ongoing energy crisis. For the first time since he took office, Davis’ approval rating has sunk below 50 percent (46 percent according to one poll).
Wide-open field
“Republicans now sense they have a shot at getting back the governor’s mansion,” said local Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum. “And right now, on paper at least, Riordan looks to be the best candidate out there to challenge Davis. He’s got name identification and political experience. He’s got plenty of money, he’s got a moderate political stance, and he’s shown he can get crossover and Latino votes.”
The other two Republican candidates considering runs for governor Secretary of State Bill Jones and local investment banker William Simon Jr. lack one or more of those attributes, Hoffenblum pointed out. For example, he said, Jones doesn’t have a deep pocketbook and he has traditionally relied on a Republican base for support. Simon, on the other hand, lacks name recognition and a proven political track record; he also carries the potential stigma of being just another wealthy businessman seeking to dabble in politics, even though his father served as U.S. Treasury Secretary under former President Nixon.
Other political observers agreed that Riordan would seem to be the strongest rival to Davis.
“Riordan would make a formidable candidate for all those reasons, and I might add one more: he’s got a generally positive track record as mayor,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, senior scholar with the USC School of Policy, Planning and Development. “There is a perception that things have gone well for L.A. with him at the helm.”
But political observers do cite some downsides. Perhaps the biggest is a feeling of disenchantment with Riordan among more conservative Republicans, particularly after he has endorsed so many Democrats for office U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Villaraigosa, among others.
“Look, if he wants to face Gray Davis in a race for governor, he’s first got to make it past the Republican primary,” said longtime local political observer Joe Scott. “And the problem is that moderate Republicans don’t control the state Republican Party the conservatives do. You’ve got to win their hearts and minds to win the primary. And this is a guy who’s rarely, if ever, been to a state Republican convention. What’s more, many local Republicans have an uneasy feeling about his support for Clinton and other Democrats.”
Riordan has tried to curry favor with Republicans recently most notably by inviting leading party members to his home for some strategizing on how to increase the Republicans’ shriveled base in California. And he can now cite Bush’s encouragement to counterbalance any charges that he lacks support among Republicans.
But even with all the words of encouragement that have come his way in recent weeks, Riordan may have an even deeper problem: the perception that he may not have the “fire in the belly” to get through a very rigorous campaign. Even if he were to make it past the primary, he would still have to face Davis, his $30 million-plus war chest and a penchant among Davis’ campaign aides for going for his opponents’ jugular.
“I’m skeptical that he’s ultimately going to run for governor,” said San Fernando Valley-based Republican political pollster and strategist Arnold Steinberg. “You just don’t launch into a run for governor on a whim like this, seven or eight months before the primary. It takes months of carefully laying the political groundwork, of putting together a campaign team. And above all, it takes a real fire in the belly, of wanting it like you’ve never wanted anything before. I’ve talked with him repeatedly over the last several months, and I just don’t get that sense with him.”
