Political Pulse—Term Limits, Close Contests Likely to Lift Voter Turnout

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The magic number is 343,200.

That’s how many votes James Hahn or Antonio Villaraigosa must cobble together to win the general election for L.A. mayor if current turnout projections hold. It’s also the number of votes Mike Feuer or Rocky Delgadillo must assemble to become city attorney.

The City Clerk’s Office predicts a 45 percent turnout among the city’s 1,525,350 registered voters, 10 points higher than the percentage of voters that turned in ballots in the April 10 primary election. Turnout will be higher than in the primary, observers said, because of the narrower field of mayoral candidates and several close City Council races.

And if that 45 percent turnout is realized, it would match the general election turnout reached in 1993, the last time there was an open seat for mayor.

“We’re tracked within 1 percent of the 1993 turnout for the primary election, and we’re expecting to be in the same neighborhood for the general election,” said Frank Martinez, executive officer in the City Clerk’s Office.

Unlike 1993, when riots and recession wracked L.A., there is no galvanizing sense that a change in direction is needed; such a generally contented electorate might not be tempted to go to the polls in as great numbers.

However, this time around there’s a countervailing force: term limits. Back in 1993, only a couple of City Council races were for open seats; thanks to term limits, this time there are five. More interest in these so-called “down-ticket” races will likely boost turnout in those districts, keeping the overall turnout from slipping, Martinez said.

Of course, the key question is which mayoral and city attorney candidates can put together the 343,000-plus votes needed to secure a citywide majority.

To win, Villaraigosa is going to need a huge boost from Latinos and union households, according to political consultant Jorge Flores. Villaraigosa does have the support of the County Federation of Labor, which has hundreds of precinct walkers.

“Traditionally, these have been lower-propensity voters, although as we saw in the primary, that is beginning to change,” Flores said.

Hahn, on the other hand, needs middle-of-the road voters in the San Fernando Valley and on the Westside to come to the polls if he’s to broaden out his base of support from the dwindling proportion of African-American voters which turned out in force for him in the primary, Flores said.

The outcome of the mayor’s race may well determine the contest for city attorney, Flores said. Feuer, the frontrunner going into the election after having sewn up the lion’s share of Democratic Party endorsements, needs a heavy turnout from Westside liberals, as well as from the Valley residents he represents on the City Council.

After running a brilliant primary campaign to finish in a dead heat with Feuer, Delgadillo may see his fate tied to Villaraigosa’s mayoral bid.

“To the extent that Latinos come out in support of Villaraigosa, Rocky is the presumed beneficiary,” Flores said. “Without a huge Latino turnout, I just don’t see Rocky making it.”

Of the five council district races, by far the closest and most intriguing is the Eric Garcetti-Mike Woo match-up in the 13th District, which encompasses the Hollywood area. Garcetti, the son of former District Attorney Gil, is trying to appeal to Latinos and younger voters; Woo, who held that same council seat a decade ago, is “relying on the old guard of liberals to get their forces to the polls,” Flores said.


Poll Mystery

The big shocker in this runoff mayoral campaign so far besides the nasty tone of the ads was last week’s Los Angeles Times poll putting Hahn seven points ahead of Villaraigosa.

“This poll really stands out. Every other poll puts these two neck-and-neck, within the margin of error,” said Xandra Kayden, president of the L.A. chapter of the League of Women Voters, who has moderated several debates between the two candidates.

Granted, more polls had given Hahn a slight edge in the neighborhood of 2 to 4 percentage points. But that’s generally at the upper end of the 3-to-4-point margin of error contained in most of the polls, which could also signify a race that’s too close to call.

Even the Hahn folks were caught a little off guard by the magnitude of the lead shown in the Times poll.

“I’ve kept in touch with the campaign and their own internal polling showed Hahn about 3 to 4 points ahead,” said one Hahn supporter last week. “I just don’t understand how the Times came up with that large of a margin. Of course, I hope it’s true.”

Naturally, the Villaraigosa camp came out with its own poll last week showing Villaraigosa ahead by 3 percentage points. Furthermore, his supporters were quick to point out that their polling was the most accurate predictor of the outcome of the April 10 primary election.

Coincidentally, the Times poll a blow to the frontrunner status that Villaraigosa had enjoyed over the last month was released two days after the Times itself endorsed Villaraigosa for mayor. Immediately after that endorsement, the talk around town was that it virtually sealed up the election for Villaraigosa.


Fifth District Debate

It took a little while, but the gloves finally came off during the last debate between Fifth Council District contestants Tom Hayden and Jack Weiss. Held in a Westwood theater at 8 a.m. May 30, the debate had both candidates often staking out the same positions on everything from parking to the living wage to developer Ira Smedra’s latest Westwood development proposal.

But things got a little testy towards the end of the debate, when Hayden said that Weiss’ campaign was being bankrolled by downtown lobbyists and special interests.

Weiss tried to respond with poise, even going so far as to applaud Hayden’s closing statement. But finally, in his closing statement, the cool disappeared.

“Mr. Hayden, stop demonizing me,” Weiss said, turning to Hayden. “That’s all you’ve been doing since day one in this campaign.”

Staff reporter Howard Fine can be contacted at (323) 549-5225, ext. 227, or at [email protected].

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