JOHN DORFMAN—Looking Forward, Backward at a Few Favorite Stocks

0

The stock market, as defined by either the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index or the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has fallen for five straight weeks.

Whether the decline will continue, I don’t know. But I do know this: In a down market, stocks with high dividend yields hold up better than those with scant dividend yields or none.

About a year ago, I recommended Bandag Inc., Bank One Corp., First Union Corp. and Storage USA Inc. on the basis of their dividends. Since then, these high-yielding stocks have returned 12 percent on average, compared to 8 percent for the S & P.;

Four stocks I like now because they offer dividend yields well above average, as well as good dividend growth in the past five years, are Ford Motor Co., Wallace Computer Services Inc., F & M; National Corp. and Commerce Group Inc.

In short, high-yield stocks are a good bet for a soft market.

Track record

Since my recommendation a year ago, Bandag, Bank One, First Union, and Storage USA have underperformed the market while the S & P; rose to a peak on March 24, but they have posted an average return of 14 percent since then, beating the S & P; by 21 percentage points.

During this recent period of market weakness, Bandag has returned 54 percent, Bank One 29 percent, Storage USA 1.7 percent and First Union negative 13 percent.

That is fairly typical of what you can expect from stocks with high dividend yields. In up markets, they will generally lag racier stocks. In down markets, they will shine. Overall, they tend to do slightly better than the typical stock.

Today Ford, Wallace Computer, F & M; National and Commerce Group each meet four criteria:

& lt; A dividend yield of at least 4 percent (compared to 1.1 percent for the S & P; 500).

& lt; A minimum annual dividend growth rate of 10 percent over the past five years.

& lt; A market value of $500 million or more.

& lt; A price-earnings ratio of 18 or less.

Ford, the No. 2 U.S. automaker, has been paying a dividend of 50 cents a quarter lately, up from 35 cents a share in the fourth quarter of 1995. The $2 annual dividend provides a yield of 7.7 percent on Ford’s $25.88 stock price as of last week. The yield will probably drop to about 4.5 percent later this year as a result of the Dearborn, Mich.-based company’s recapitalization and June spinoff of Visteon Corp., its parts-making unit.

Tire-recall fallout

Ford shares sold for as much as $31.36 apiece in January. They have fallen in part because of investor concern over the recall of millions of Firestone tires that were used mainly on Ford Explorer sport utility vehicles.

I don’t consider Ford shares a great buy now (the best time to buy auto stocks is usually when the companies are losing money), but I consider them a good buy.

Wallace Computer Systems, based in Lisle, Ill., used to be a leading maker of business forms. It was originally called Wallace Press, changed its name to Wallace Business Forms in 1963, and adopted its present name in 1981.

Business forms are still a big part of the business, but the nature of the business has changed. Nowadays, companies want their forms computerized, so as to allow for easy updates and adaptations. Pressure-sensitive labels (for mass mailings) also provide a big chunk of Wallace’s revenue.

Strong dividend history

Wallace has recently been paying a dividend of 16.5 cents per quarter, or 66 cents a year. That makes for an annual yield of 4.6 percent. Its five-year dividend growth rate is 12 percent. And there is room for further growth, as Wallace last year paid out 35 percent of profits in dividends. The stock is cheap, selling for just over book value (corporate net worth per share), 0.4 times revenue and 11 times earnings.

F & M; National is a Winchester, Va., company that runs banks in Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland. It had 128 branches in May. Since then it has bought another 15 branches from Wachovia Corp., and will add another 15 when it completes its pending acquisition of Atlantic Financial Corp.

In 1999, F & M;’s nonperforming loans were a little higher than I like to see, at 1.1 percent of total loans. But it was nicely profitable, with a return on assets of 1.4 percent. Currently selling for 1.9 times book value and 13 times earnings, F & M; is a logical takeover target at a higher price.

And in case I’m wrong, you are still sitting with a 4.2 percent dividend yield. The dividend has been 25 cents a share the past two quarters, and has been growing at a 10 percent rate.

Just so-so

My final choice is Commerce Group, a Webster, Mass., company that specializes in auto insurance in its home state. Many car-insurance companies avoid Massachusetts because it is known for tough (critics say intrusive) regulation, including rate regulation.

Commerce Group also offers other types of insurance, such as homeowners and commercial multi-peril, and has a mortgage-origination business.

Commerce Group’s operating results have been just so-so. Over the past five years, its revenue has grown at an 8.8 percent clip, but net income has fallen at a 3.5 percent rate. Still, Commerce Group earned a respectable 15 percent on stockholders’ equity last year.

On the basis of its dividends, Commerce Group looks attractive. It offers a 4.2 percent yield, and has shown average annual dividend growth of 39 percent over the past five years. There is room for further dividend growth, as Commerce Group last year paid out 38 percent of its profits in the form of dividends.

If you expect a raging bull market to resume, high-dividend stocks are not the way to go. If you expect a horrible bear market, high-dividend stocks won’t protect you from losses, though they may cushion the blow.

If you expect more of what we’ve been having the past few months a flat to moderately weak market then you may do very well by packing a few more high-yield stocks into your portfolio.

John Dorfman, president of Dorfman Investments in Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News.

No posts to display