It can be tough to look around Los Angeles and picture a future of something other than fabulous wealth floating above a hard-pressed class of laborers and a shrinking middle class.
It’s not such a desultory exercise if one keeps in mind that human beings are remarkably resourceful creatures, and economies can be dynamic beyond prediction. That’s how, after all, hundreds of millions of individuals the world over have gone from off-the-grid to smart phones in less than a generation.
There’s plenty of data and anecdotal indicators to support either the depressing or uplifting view of the future.
Consider the effects of self-driving vehicles – which will get here, and likely sooner than later. Start with the reduced need for the overall number of vehicles, add the effects on bus drivers, truck drivers, and taxi drivers – not to mention Uber and Lyft drivers. Think about the insurance companies that sell policies. Think about all those TV stations that sell ads to the insurance companies.
It’s a ripple effect that will leave you wondering who will need humans in coming years.
That’s overblown, of course. The automobile all but wiped out the blacksmith, but also played a central role in the development of suburbs, perhaps the greatest prod to economic development in U.S. history.
Concerns remain, though – and now is a time to take great care in how we consider and communicate the challenges and potential of our economy and world. That includes attitudes and terminology attached to a couple of key sectors of L.A.’s economy: retail and restaurants, both of which are often portrayed in a sort of shorthand manner as dead-end career paths.
“Flipping burgers” is often cited as the reward for a misspent youth. The notion of retail workers as gum-snapping cogs in a broken machine abounds.
Such perceptions are fed, in part, by statistical codes and economic modeling that can miss the dynamics of human engagement and economic realities.
Consider the restaurant business, where many start in low-wage jobs – and some remain at that level. Yet many others move up and become true professionals, even if there aren’t certifications for high-end waiters or bartenders who can make six figures with tips. And the combination of food trucks, apps and the Millennial generation’s fascination with foodstuffs have meanwhile lowered barriers and costs, spurring a truly disruptive wave of entrepreneurs.
Consider, also, the truly professional salespeople who work the floors and cosmetic counters of high-end department stores or the many fancy boutiques in Los Angeles. They are entrepreneurs of a different sort – again lacking in the sort of certifications that might signify a career but every bit the professional of day-to-day commerce.
Look to the page at right for some well-crafted thoughts about vocational training and trades – a notion that should get more emphasis as Los Angeles aims to develop an economy for the future.
Please consider, also, the service industry, which includes various segments that deserve as much consideration going forward.
