In the race for the White House, Donald Trump isn’t just changing the political game at the national level, he’s having a huge impact on the political advertising landscape for local broadcasters.
The presumptive Republican nominee’s ability to garner free exposure from both traditional and online media has forced advertising executives, campaign managers, and analysts to reexamine their expectations and strategies. And it comes at a time when local broadcast outlets were hoping for a contested California primary, a rare occurrence that would see the market awash in campaign ad dollars. The early May withdrawal of Trump’s competitors for the Republican nomination might have dashed those hopes, but even with a less competitive primary, Los Angeles is nevertheless due for a record-setting ad-spending political season.
Local media outlets are projected to be the beneficiaries of nearly $620 million in campaign-related ad spending this year, a whopping 20 percent increase over the $514 million expended in the 2012 cycle.
“California will see more political ads this year than in decades,” said Dan Schnur, director of USC’s Unruh Institute of Politics.
The spending spree comes as California is positioned to be an important political presidential battleground for the first time in 40 years as candidates shift strategies, messaging, and platforms to compete in the June 7 primary and in the general election Nov. 8.
Spreading around
Television is expected to dominate. Borrell Associates Inc., a Williamsburg, Va.-based analytics firm, is projecting that from January through November, L.A. broadcast TV outlets will pull in $300 million of the political advertising pie, 48 percent of the overall spend in the L.A. market.
Reflecting the rapid rise of the digital market, online ads, which accounted for just $5 million (1 percent) of political advertising in Los Angeles in 2012, are projected to hit $62.8 million in the market this year, a full 10 percent of the total advertising expenditure. The traditional outlets of cable ($59.3 million, 9.6 percent), telemarketing ($51.7 million, 8.3 percent), and radio ($49.7 million, 8 percent) fill out the top five.
“Digital is the real opportunity to target your message precisely,” said Schnur. “If you’re attempting to win an individual congressional district, for example, you can drill down to the city block and household.”
A campaign’s online advertising strategy also has goals beyond gaining voter support. It’s most often used to recruit volunteers and to collect potential donor email addresses, especially in California, where Democratic candidates have always gone to drum up support.
Sen. Bernie Sanders’ surprise win in Indiana makes it more likely that Hillary Clinton, who had been expected to hold on to her cash for the general election, might start spreading some around local media outlets as the primary gets nearer.
Data defining dollars
Data from comScore shows that Sanders has already spent more than $550,000 statewide so far, “but California is by no means locked down for spending,” said Carol Davidsen, vice president of political technology at comScore in New York.
That number is expected to reach $1 million before it’s all said and done.
General managers at local TV and radio stations are hesitant to disclose data or numbers until the window to buy has closed for both sides.
“Everything you’re doing in political spending is very fluid,” said Jean Brooks, a political ad buying consultant at West L.A.’s Milner Butcher Media Group. “You can pretty quickly adjust and move dollars and change strategy based on what you’re seeing in the marketplace.”
That means ad buys could come in very late in the game. If a candidate has an ad ready, it’s possible to call a local station, wire them the money, and upload a spot to go on the air the next day, Brooks said.
“Four years ago was totally different,” said Davidsen. “Primary spending is up because Democrats are dealing with it and California counts. … Sanders is still trying to push messaging even if he can’t be president – and he’ll likely be doing this on TV.”
Campaign advisers this year have access to more granular data in both digital and traditional broadcast media, which help them effectively tailor buys for their target audience in local markets.
Latino influence
The most reliable voter is an older voter, said Brooks, and those voters are most easily reached through TV and radio.
Campaigns are able to buy ads based on frequency goals, which refers to the number of ads a household is exposed to in a week. In the L.A. market, that means a smart campaign this cycle is using data to control their frequency distribution, potentially moving buys out of local news programming and into cable or Spanish-language networks such as Univision Communication’s KMEX, according to Davidsen’s research.
“It makes sense to prioritize budget for specific markets, and Los Angeles would be an important market for persuasion because it’s so huge and has a large presence of Latino voters,” said Davidsen.
While the Latino vote is being courted heavily by the Democratic presidential contenders, a bigger draw to the polls this year might be the Democratic race for the U.S. Senate between Attorney General Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez. That contest is expected to account for $25.6 million in ad revenue for L.A. media.
“Sanchez needs to spend a lot,” said Schnur. “And the large number of top-line initiatives on the fall ballot means that supporters will be spending as much or more than potential presidential candidates will or would have this spring.”
