Concert Promoter Gets Lift From Madonna Dates

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Madonna is plotting her comeback in 2012, and already investors of Live Nation Entertainment Inc. are betting on the 53-year-old pop icon’s success.

The Material Girl, who was chosen to perform at the upcoming Super Bowl halftime show, announced in mid-December that she will release a new album in late March. Live Nation, a live entertainment and e-commerce company that promotes records and produces concerts for more than 2,000 artists, including Madonna, is already reaping the rewards.

The Beverly Hills company was among the biggest gainers on the LABJ Stock Index for the week ended Jan. 4, closing up more than 12 percent to $9.44.

Analysts said the jump in price has something to do with what they are calling a robust concert schedule for 2012, and Madonna is at the helm.

Richard Tullo, analyst and director of research for Albert Fried & Co. LLC in New York, said he expects Madonna to surpass the $408 million in revenue from her 2009 tour by at least $100 million. A large portion will go to Live Nation.

“We think in total Live Nation will generate about $60 million in revenue from the tour,” Tullo said.

But Madonna is just one voice among many. The Eagles, the Who, Bruce Springsteen, Cold Play, Black Sabbath and the Beach Boys will all be touring in 2012, and music enthusiasts are also betting on a 50-year anniversary tour from the Rolling Stones.

Live Nation has a hand in many facets of the live entertainment industry, from ticketing and concert production to artist management. It stands to benefit from the tours of those big-name performers in different ways.

However, Doug Arthur, managing director of research for Evercore Partners in New York, said he thinks the stock’s recent spurt has less to do with Madonna than with the company’s overall promise.

“Madonna’s performance at the Super Bowl has been public for quite a while, and her new recording deal is not new news, per se,” Arthur said. “I think it’s more a case of stock that has lagged in the market for a long time that people are taking a fresh look at in the new year.”

Live Nation’s stock price began 2011 at about $12 a share, but stayed around $7 to $8 for most of the year.

“Throughout the year, the stock didn’t do all that well,” Tullo said, “in part because of fears about Europe’s economy, and in part because the company decided to promote fewer concerts.”

But at less than $10 per share, Arthur said the stock is still underperforming.

He said one hurdle for the company is to complete arbitration that began in 2010 with CTS Eventim. The Munich, Germany, ticketing company filed a complaint in the International Court of Arbitration when Live Nation merged with Ticketmaster.com, and news of a settlement is expected in the first quarter.

“It’s likely to be in CTS Eventim’s favor and result in some kind of payment from Live Nation to CTS,” he said. “That’s an uncertainty out there that needs to clear up before I would consider recommending investors buy the stock.”

A media representative for Live Nation could not be reached for comment.

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