Buffeted by the housing implosion, the California and Los Angeles economies will be weak through the rest of 2008, but thanks to strong exports should manage to avoid slipping into recession and should even begin to pick up again at the start of 2009.

That’s the conclusion of the quarterly economic forecast from the UCLA Anderson Forecast being released Wednesday morning. Forecaster and UCLA economist Jerry Nickelsburg predicts that the statewide unemployment rate, which in May reached 5.9 percent, should top out at 6.1 percent by the end of the year and then begin to fall back next year.

Meanwhile, personal income growth, another key barometer that the forecast says has flattened during the first half of the year, should rebound to a 2 percent growth rate statewide by the fourth quarter, the forecast says.

“That’s not a barnburner, but it’s not bad in a slow economy,” Nickelsburg said.

Nickelsburg said in the forecast that the job losses from the housing slowdown have largely been contained to the construction and finance sectors and are being offset by strong growth in exports and continued growth in most other service sectors.

As a result, he said the Bay Area and Los Angeles County will likely weather the storm better than other parts of the state, particularly Orange County, which has been hit hard by the collapse of the mortgage finance industry.

As for when the housing sector will bottom out, Nickelsburg said that should happen sometime in early 2009. Because home values have fallen further and faster than expected, “this augurs for a quicker recovery in residential construction than in the 1990s and faster growth in the near term,” once the bottom has been reached.