Hollywood Strike Threat Dims Forecast

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Los Angeles County’s overall economic future looks bright, but the prospect of strikes in Hollywood is a major concern, according to the 2007-08 Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook, released Wednesday.


The report, which is prepared by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, said that while the L.A. County region should see job growth of 1.1 percent, the movie and television production industry could quickly lose as many as 2,000 jobs in 2008 due to labor disruptions.


“The 2007-2008 outlook for the Southern California economy is somewhat Goldilock-ish,” said Chief LAEDC Economist Jack Kyser. “As six of the region’s basic industries have good growth prospects there will still be a drag from the housing market, while two of the region’s signature industries could encounter some rough going.”


The other large local industry at risk is international trade. The report points to the new Transportation Worker Identification Credential, which will control access to the terminals for all port workers, including truck drivers, as a possible area of trouble.


The report highlighted concern that the motion picture studios and TV production companies, which face contract negotiations with the Writers Guild in October and the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild all within the next 18 months, could be in for a rough run if care isn’t taken now.


“There are a variety of scenarios being spun out as to what might take place,” Kyser added. “The risk of a strike, real or de facto, is high, and this would not be good news for areas of Los Angeles County with exposure to the business.”


Kyser said he is concerned that many of the port truck drivers won’t be able to get a TWIC due to their immigration status. About half of the container traffic is moved out of the ports via trucks.


“Southern California has an array of basic industries that are positioned for future growth. However, business and government leaders have to be more strategic in their thinking,” Kyser warned.

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