Shares of Mattel Inc. fell nearly 6 percent in heavy trading volume Tuesday after an analyst downgraded the El Segundo-based toymaker’s stock based on continued weakness at its Barbie doll brand.

Harris Nesbitt analyst Sean McGowan cut his rating for Mattel to “neutral” from “outperform.,” saying that “the long-awaited recovery in Barbie sales shows no signs of happening soon.”

“Despite strength in several other product lines, we believe weakness in Barbie, against the backdrop of rising costs and increasing consumer skittishness, will result in significant shortfalls to revenues and profits in the second half of 2005 and beyond,” said McGowan, in a research note to investors.

The analyst said that U.S. Barbie sales have been flat or down for 17 of the past 18 quarters, estimating that domestic Barbie sales have dropped to less than $600 million in 2004 from $920 million in 2000. He also said that sales of MGA Entertainment’s Bratz dolls, Barbie’s major competitor this fall, gained retail shelf space while Barbie saw a “significant” loss of shelf space at retailers.

McGowan said that these factors, along with a trend of falling consumer confidence and high gas prices, indicate that Mattel’s sales and earnings are unlikely to meet revenue expectations expectations that the analyst said he already lowered for the fiscal years of 2005 and 2006.

Mattel settled down 6.2 percent to $16.85 on Tuesday.