A strange thing happened to my spate of predictions for 2004: A bunch of them were right.
President Bush was re-elected and not by the landslide some pundits had expected. The Republicans added to their majorities in the House and Senate. Colin Powell resigned. The Dodgers made it to the playoffs, Osama bin Laden remained at large, Saddam’s capture did nothing to quell the insanity of Iraq, and Martha Stewart was sentenced to jail time. After more than 15 years of annual predictions, it was by far my finest hour.
But now what? This year seems a lot murkier than 2004, with no obvious election calls, court cases or sports turnarounds. But enough tap dancing. Here’s what ’05 looks like:
Hahn Wins: It won’t even be close. L.A.’s mayor will win a second term with a decisive victory over City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, who will squeak into the runoff ahead of Bob Hertzberg.
Cophouse Update: William Bratton, the guy on whose coattails Hahn will ride for a second term, won’t make it through the year as L.A.’s police chief.
Nervous Economy: Interest rates will be the big economic deal in ’05, as the Federal Reserve tries to inch them up enough to ensure that foreign investors will keep snapping up U.S. securities (and thus pay off our massive debt), but not too much as to scare off consumers and snuff out the housing market.
Hilary Talk: The Democrats, already in tatters after the 2004 election, will be torn up even further on whether the former First Lady should make a run for the White House in 2008.
Some Tension: Housing appreciation in L.A. will be flat, which is sure to convince many homeowners that the bubble is about to burst and result in slower spending and possibly a recession in 2006.
Bad Taste Dept.: At least one made-for-television movie will be based on last week’s catastrophic tsunami and it will air during the May sweeps period.
MIA: Osama bin Laden will not be heard from throughout the year, which will lead to all kinds of speculation: Is he dead? Kidnapped? Writing a book?
Reality Fades: The big TV story will be the plummeting ratings for reality shows, and the success of ABC’s “Desperate Housewives” will have the other networks coming up with their own versions of sex in the suburbs.
Radio Waves: Satellite radio companies will continue losing big bucks as stories pop up questioning the sector’s financial future.
Good News: Some unexpected breakthroughs in stem cell research will intensify the push for more federal funding, despite protests by the religious right.
Social Security: President Bush’s agenda notwithstanding, Social Security reform will be a big bust, as the Republican-led Congress will be unable to cut a deal.
Disney Chief: Based on ABC’s resurgence (see above) that he nominally oversaw, Robert Iger will become the new chief executive of Walt Disney Co., succeeding Michael Eisner.
Judicial Clamor: There will be two Supreme Court vacancies, and one of the president’s nominations will be forced to withdraw over a past misdeed.
Sports Beat: This will be a terrible year for L.A. teams. After making it to the playoffs for the first time since 1996, the Dodgers will drop to also-rans, with a third-place finish. The Lakers will manage to make it to the second round, the Clippers won’t even make it into post-season (yawn), and even USC, minus Matt Leinert who will turn pro, will end up losing three games.
Phil’s Back: Well, sort of. After a year of R & R;, the former Laker coach will be back on the court, leading the New York Knicks.
Wedding News: Martha Stewart, fresh out of prison and a full-blown image makeover, will announce her engagement at the end of the year.
And Finally: We’ll somehow find a way to get through 2005, and by the time Bing Crosby starts crooning again at the malls, some clown will be offering his crazy predictions for ’06.
Mark Lacter is editor of the Business Journal.
